基于数据驱动的城市生态风险预测方法  

Urban Ecological Risk Prediction Method Based on Data Driven

作　　者：兰萍[1] 索朗白姆[1] LAN Ping;SUOLANG Bai-mu(School of Engineering,Tibet University,Lhasa Tibet 850000,China)

机构地区：[1]西藏大学工学院,西藏拉萨850000

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2023年第7期481-485,共5页Computer Simulation

基　　金：西藏大学一流学科建设项目(00060299);国家自然基金项目(51508468)。

摘　　要：鉴于城市生态风险预测的不完全性与不明确性,提出基于数据驱动的城市生态风险预测方法,精准分析城市生态风险演变态势。构建由生态系统压力、状态、响应构成的包含18个指标的城市生态风险预测指标体系,采用层次分析法,通过判断矩阵描述各预测指标的重要度后计算各指标权重,结合灰色模糊理论与模糊集理论,搭建城市生态风险灰色模糊预测模型,通过求出各指标权重对应的灰色模糊集合,充分表达各指标与城市生态风险间的灰色模糊关系,结合判断矩阵进行逐层灰色模糊综合预测,得出城市生态风险等级。实验结果显示,上述方法下城市生态风险预测结果与实际结果十分接近,可依据预测结果精准分析城市生态风险演变态势;所提方法选取指标覆盖率均在80%以上,可全面反映城市生态状态变化情况。Due to the incompleteness and uncertainty of urban ecological risk prediction at present,a method of urban ecological risk prediction method data-driven mode was proposed to accurately analyze the evolution trend of urban ecological risk.In this paper,an index system of urban ecological risk prediction consisting of eighteen indexes such as pressure,state and response of the ecosystem was constructed.The analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and the judgment matrix were adopted to describe the importance of each prediction index,and then the weight of each index was calculated.Based on gray fuzzy theory and fuzzy theory,the grey fuzzy model of predicting urban ecological risk was built.In order to fully express the gray fuzzy relationship between each index and urban ecological risk,the gray fuzzy set corresponding to the weight of each index was calculated in advance.Finally,the urban ecological risk level was obtained by layer-by-layer grey fuzzy prediction.Experiment results show that the prediction result of urban ecological risk is very close to the actual result,so this method can accurately analyze the evolution trend of urban ecological risk based on the prediction result.The coverage ratio of the indexes selected by the proposed method is more than 80%.Therefore,the method can fully reflect the change of urban ecological state.

关 键 词：数据驱动 城市生态 风险预测 灰色模糊 指标体系 权重值 

分 类 号：TP393[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]