粤北山区降水量空间插值方法对比分析  

Comparison and Analysis of Precipitation Amount Spatial Interpolation Algorithms for the Mountainous Areas of Northern Guangdong Province

作　　者：林文波 张卫彪 李曹明 黄观荣 LIN Wen-bo;ZHANG Wei-biao;LI Cao-ming;HUANG Guan-rong(Meteorological Bureau of Renhua,Renhua 512300;Meteorological Bureau of Shaoguan,Shaoguan 512028)

机构地区：[1]仁化县气象局,广东仁化512300 [2]韶关市气象局,广东韶关512028

出　　处：《广东气象》2023年第5期29-32,共4页Guangdong Meteorology

基　　金：广东省气象局科学技术研究项目(GRMC2019M41);华南区域(广东省)气候变化创新团队(GRMCTD202101)。

摘　　要：利用韶关市2015—2020年区域自动气象站降水数据,选用泰森多边形法、反距离权重法、普通克里金法、协同克里金法、样条函数法、薄盘光滑样条函数法6种插值方法对降水插值效果进行对比分析,结果表明:各种插值算法一致反映出韶关地区2015—2020年平均降水空间分布整体呈现中南部多、北部少,降水大值区位于韶关南部与清远交界一带,且极值区域落在曲江南部喇叭口地形处;对于粤北山区降水插值,在前汛期、后汛期和年尺度上考虑高程和经纬度的协同克里金法的均方根误差(RMSE)最小,且能很好的反映局部地形降水特征;在月尺度上,泰森多边形法的RMSE最小。Using the data of precipitation amount from regional automatic weather stations in Shaoguan from 2015 to 2020 and with six interpolation methods of Natural Neighbour(NN),Inverse Distance Weigh-ted(IDW),Ordinary Kriging(OK),Co-Kriging(Co-K),Spline and Anusplin(ANU),this work com-pares and analyzes how well the precipitation is interpolated.The results are shown as follows.As all inter-polation algorithms consistently pointed out,the spatial distribution of average precipitation amounts over the region of Shaoguan in the years studied generally shows a pattern of larger amount in the central and southern than in the northern part of Shaoguan,with a high-value zone around the border between southern Shaoguan and Qingyuan and a zone of extreme values at a trumpet-shaped terrain in the south of Qujiang county.For interpolated precipitation amounts for the mountainous areas of northern Guangdong,the root-mean-square error(RMSE)is the least with the algorithm of Co-K,which takes into account altitudes and longitudes and latitudes in two annual flood seasons and on the annual scale,and best reflects local characteristics of ter-rain-related precipitation.On the monthly scale,the RMSE is the smallest with the NN algorithm.

关 键 词：天气学 降水 地形 空间插值 均方根误差 粤北山区 

分 类 号：P44[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]