德国第三轮技术预测研究及启示  

Research and Enlightenment on Germany’s Technology Foresight(CycleⅢ)

作　　者：孙云杰[1] 袁立科[1] 陈萍 SUN Yunjie;YUAN Like;CHEN Ping(Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development,Beijing 100038;Exchange,Development&Service Center for Science&Technology Talents,MOST,Beijing 100045)

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术发展战略研究院,北京100038 [2]科学技术部科技人才交流开发服务中心,北京100045

出　　处：《全球科技经济瞭望》2023年第7期15-20,共6页Global Science，Technology and Economy Outlook

摘　　要：德国是欧洲率先开展体制化技术预测的国家,此后欧洲各国政府纷纷开展技术预测活动。2019年德国启动第三轮技术预测,聚焦21世纪30年代的技术和社会发展,对德国社会价值观的变化、未来的新议题和新趋势做出研判,并对教育和研究相关议题进行评估。分析德国第三轮技术预测的组织实施特点、工作内容和研究方法,可以为中国技术预测工作提供借鉴。中国技术预测应在“大预测观”、“大预测体系”、预测方法和预测成果应用等方面予以加强。Germany is the first country in Europe to carry out institutionalized technology forecasting,marking the beginning of European governments’technology forecasting activities.In 2019,Germany launched Germany’s technology foresight(CycleⅢ),focusing on the technological and social development of the 2030s.Analyzing the organizational implementation characteristics,work content and research methods of Germany’s technology foresight(CycleⅢ)can provide reference for China’s technology foresight.China’s technology foresight should be strengthened in terms of the concept of foresight concept,foresight system,foresight methods,and application of foresight results.

关 键 词：德国 技术预测 预测方法 未来议题 

分 类 号：G321[文化科学]