延迟退休对个人基本养老金收入的影响——基于拓展OLG模型的研究  

The Impact of Delayed Retirement on Personal Basic Pension Income:Based on Extended OLG Model

作　　者：高晓杰 GAO Xiaojie(School of Economics,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350117)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学经济学院,福建福州350117

出　　处：《上海立信会计金融学院学报》2023年第3期80-92,共13页Journal of Shanghai Lixin University of Accounting and Finance

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(21BJL092);福建师范大学经济学院国家经济学基础人才培养基地科研课题(JJ202002)。

摘　　要：文章通过构建延迟退休政策下职工参与基本养老保险的拓展OLG模型发现,延迟退休主要通过影响人口出生率、劳均资本、基本养老金缴费期限和领取期限对个人基本养老金收入产生作用。在此基础上进行数值模拟发现,当资本产出弹性高于开区间(0.37,0.38)内的某一阈值时,延迟退休将导致个人基本养老金收入减少;当资本产出弹性低于开区间(0.32,0.33)内的某一阈值时,结论则相反;当资本产出弹性处于闭区间[0.33,0.37]时,延迟退休对个人基本养老金收入的影响呈现先负向后正向,且随着资本产出弹性水平的提高,延迟退休对个人基本养老金收入的影响出现由负转正,所需要的延迟退休年份数也将提高。因此,我国在出台延迟退休政策时,应配套相应的福利政策,适当提高养老金给付比例,扩大资本积累,并及时监测经济运行中的资本产出弹性。The author constructs an extended OLG model to analyze the impact of delayed retirement on personal basic pension income in China,and finds that delayed retirement mainly affects personal basic pension income by influencing population birth rate,labor capital,basic pension contribution period,and pension receiving period.Based on the model,numerical simulations were conducted and it was found that when the output elasticity of capital is greater than a certain threshold within the open interval(0.37,0.38),delayed retirement will lead to a decrease in personal basic pension income.When the output elasticity of capital is lower than a certain threshold within the open interval(0.32,0.33),the conclusion is the opposite.When the output elasticity of capital is in a closed interval[0.33,0.37],the impact of delayed retirement on personal basic pension income shows a trend of first negative impact and then positive impact.As the output elasticity of capital increases,the impact of delayed retirement on personal basic pension income changes from negative to positive,and the number of years of delayed retirement required also increases..Therefore,when implementing the policy of delayed retirement in China,corresponding welfare policies should be implemented,the proportion of pension payments should be appropriately increased,capital accumulation should be expanded,and the output elasticity of capital in the economy should be monitored timely.

关 键 词：延迟退休 养老金收入 基本养老保险 资本产出弹性 拓展OLG模型 

分 类 号：F842.67[经济管理—保险] F249.2