1992—2019年澳门地区移民与移工数量的影响因素分析——基于ARDL-ECM模型的实证研究  

The Influential Factors of the Number of Immigrants and Migrant Workers in Macao region(1992-2019):An Empirical Study Based on ARDL-ECM

作　　者：周博 Zhou Bo

机构地区：[1]广州大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《新经济》2023年第10期46-57,共12页New Economy

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目《“一带一路”背景下国际移民的流入模式与空间特征研究(18ZDA133)》。

摘　　要：澳门地区的城市发展模式具有独特性:人口增长主要依靠移民,城市面积扩大主要依靠填海,近30年以特色旅游业为经济支柱。为压缩居住用地、优先供给旅游酒店业,澳门地区选择增加住房需求小的移工(外地劳工)的配额,减少住房需求大的移民的配额。本文基于澳门地区统计暨普查局统计年鉴,利用误差修正模型分析1992-2019年数据,发现土地面积和薪酬水平对移工数量均有长期正向影响,而对移民数量有长期负向影响。这表明随着城市规模扩大,澳门地区对短期跨境劳动力的依赖性越来越强。为保障短期劳动力供应需要压缩对定居者的资源供给,导致长期人口和劳动力紧缺的恶性循环。据此,澳门地区应调控移民和移工的比例,加强与珠三角其他城市的合作以降低城市扩张成本,并提高经济多元性。Macao's urban development model has many unique characteristics.The expansion of Macao's urban area is mainly through reclamation,the population growth basically depends on immigration,and the economic development is basically driven by gambling tourism.Based on data from the Statistics and Census Bureau,this paper uses the Error Correction Model(ECM)to analyze the impact of Macao's land area and salary level on the changes in the number of immigrants from 1992 to 2019.Regression analysis shows that both land area and wage level have a positive impact on the number of labor migration and a negative impact on the number of resident immigrants.These results reflect that there is a risk of over-reliance on short-term cross-border labor in Macao region,coupled with the fact that land resources are tilted towards gambling industry,the housing standards of residents have not been improved for a long time,so the city gradually loses its attractiveness for cross-border settlers during development.Based on this,this paper suggests that Macao region should combine various means to regulate the number of different types of immigrants,to reduce the cost of expanding the urban area by strengthening the cooperation in the Pearl River Delta,and to effectively improve its economic diversification.

关 键 词：移民 移工 土地不足 单一经济结构 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]