城市经济韧性的测度与溢出效应分析——以成渝双城经济圈为例  

Measurement of Urban Economic Resilience and Analysis of Spillover Effects--Taking the Chengdu-Chongqing twin-city economic circle as an example

作　　者：王鹏[1,2] 吴涛 Wang Peng;Wu Tao

机构地区：[1]暨南大学国际问题研究院 [2]粤港澳大湾区经济发展研究中心 [3]暨南大学经济学院

出　　处：《新经济》2023年第10期92-108,共17页New Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72074096);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金自然科学基金面上项目(2022A1515010190)。

摘　　要：本文以成渝双城经济圈为研究对象,利用16个城市2010—2020年的相关面板数据,在构建综合指标体系测算城市经济韧性的基础上,借助Moran’s I指数对城市间经济韧性的空间相关性进行了分析,并通过构建空间杜宾模型实证检验了产业高级化程度对城市经济韧性溢出效应的影响。研究发现:(1)成渝双城经济圈内各城市的经济韧性普遍较低,其余城市的经济韧性水平与成都、重庆差距较大,且相邻城市间呈现出显著的负相关关系,各个城市的经济韧性逐年递增但仍存在着较大的提升空间;(2)城市产业高级化程度对经济韧性具有积极的促进作用,但对周边城市产生了负的经济溢出效应;(3)城镇化率、固定资产投资、全员劳动生产率和普通高校在校人数对城市经济韧性均存在显著的空间溢出效应。面向未来,要提升成渝双城经济圈的城市经济韧性需要合理规避在发展中产生的虹吸效应,注重提高成渝城市群内的产业高级化程度和追求城市间的协调发展。Taking the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin Cities Economic Circle as the research object,using the relevant panel data of 16 cities from 2010 to 2020,on the basis of constructing a comprehensive index system to measure the economic toughness of cities,the spatial correlation of economic toughness among cities is analyzed with the help of indexes,and the influence of the degree of industrial advancement on the spillover effect of the economic toughness of the cities is empirically examined by constructing a spatial Durbin model.The study finds that The study found that:①The economic toughness of the cities in the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin Cities Economic Circle is generally low,the economic toughness of the remaining cities and Chengdu,Chongqing,and the gap between neighboring cities shows a significant negative correlation,the economic toughness of each city year by year,but there is still a large space for improvement;②The degree of industrial sophistication of the city has a positive effect on the economic toughness of the promotion of the neighboring cities,but a negative economic spillover effect;③Urbanization rate,fixed asset investment,full labor productivity and the number of students in ordinary colleges and universities in the city’s economic resilience have a significant spatial spillover effect.In the future,to enhance the urban economic resilience of Chengdu-Chongqing Twin Cities Economic Circle,it is necessary to reasonably avoid the siphoning effect in development,focus on improving the degree of industrial sophistication within the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration,and pursue the coordinated development among cities.

关 键 词：成渝双城经济圈 经济韧性 Moran’s I指数 产业高级化 空间杜宾模型 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]