中国外汇市场压力与货币政策关联性研究——基于Tvp-Var模型的实证研究  

Research on the Correlation between Pressures from Foreign Exchange Markets and Monetary Policies in China——An Empirical Study Based on the Tvp-Var Model

作　　者：刘洋[1] LIU Yang(Bank of China Qinghai Branch Xining,Qinghai 810000)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行青海省分行,青海西宁810000

出　　处：《中国商论》2023年第20期75-78,共4页China Journal of Commerce

摘　　要：中国外汇市场压力受外部宏观经济因素、汇率制度改革影响,呈现明显的结构变化现象。中国外汇市场压力和货币政策之间的内在关系是动态的、复杂的,在谨慎管理货币政策的基础上,要对外汇市场压力形成正确的认识和判断。本文以Tvp-Var模型为依据,以定量分析思想研究中国外汇市场和货币政策之间的关系,了解国内通货膨胀、经济增长等对外汇市场产生的压力,探究外汇市场压力在不同经济周期的表现情况,以供参考。China’s foreign exchange markets are affected by external macroeconomic factors and reforms of the exchange rate systems,showing obvious structural changes.The inherent relationship between pressures from China’s foreign exchange markets and monetary policies is dynamic and complex,and it is necessary to form a correct understanding and judgment of pressures from foreign exchange markets based on prudent management of monetary policies.Based on the Tvp-Var model,this paper studies the relationship between China’s foreign exchange markets and monetary policies with quantitative analysis,understands the pressures on the foreign exchange markets generated by domestic inflation,economic growth,etc.,and explores the performance of foreign exchange markets with pressures in different economic cycles,for reference.

关 键 词：中国外汇市场 货币政策 Tvp-Var模型 汇率制度 国内货币市场 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学]