交通量波动性的测量方法及对空管性能影响的研究综述  

Research Overview of Measurement Methods of Flight Traffic Fluctuation and Its Influence on Air Traffic Control Performance

作　　者：刘锋锋 LIU Fengfeng(Operation Surveillance Center,CAAC,Beijing 100710,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民用航空局运行监控中心,京100710

出　　处：《民航学报》2023年第5期74-79,148,共7页Journal of Civil Aviation

摘　　要：随着民航业的高速发展,如何在高流量、有限空域资源、复杂运行环境中安全、高效地实施航班运行管控措施已成为空管、机场、航空公司及相关利益方都必须面对和解决的现实问题。本文就如何测量交通量的波动性以及波动性如何影响航班正常性这2个方面的最新研究进展进行了综述。导致交通量波动的因素通常有季节变化、特殊天气、昼夜运行差异,而测量波动性的主要方法为观察法、标准差和相关系统法、基尼系数分析法以及为特定用途而设计的专用指标。在上述测量波动性的技术基础上,欧控专家已经着手研究用回归方法分析流量波动性各要素对空管性能的影响,并取得了一定的成效。文章最后对存在的问题和后续研究方向做了小结。联合航班计划数据、场面运行数据、飞行轨迹数据等多维数据建模,并配合大数据技术深入挖掘运行中存在的问题,是未来提升行业整体运行效率的一个必由之路。With the rapid development of the civil aviation industry,how to safely and efficiently implement flight operation control measures in high traffic,limited airspace resources and complex operating environments has become a problem that air traffic control,airports,airlines and other stakeholders must face and solve.This paper reviews the latest research progress on how to measure traffic volatility and how the volatility affects flight regularity.Factors that cause traffic fluctuations usually include seasonal changes,special weather,and differences in day and night operations.The main methods for measuring volatility are observation method,standard deviation and correlation system method,Gini coefficient analysis method,and special indicators designed for specific purposes.On the basis of the above-mentioned techniques of measuring volatility,European experts have begun to study the influence of various elements of flow volatility on air traffic control performance by using regression methods,and have achieved certain results.The article concludes with a summary of existing problems and future research directions.Deep exploration of problems existing in the operation by joint flight plan data,surface operation data,flight trajectory data and other multi-dimensional data modeling supported by the big data technology is the only way to improve the overall operation efficiency of the industry in the future.

关 键 词：波动性 航班正常性 基尼系数 

分 类 号：U8[交通运输工程]