走出“气候赌场”  

Exiting the“Climate Casino”

作　　者：许小峰[1] Xu Xiaofeng(China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局,北京100081

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2023年第4期2-8,共7页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

摘　　要：2018年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者威廉·诺德豪斯(William D.Nordhaus)针对气候问题曾写过一本专著《气候赌场》[1],以大众化的语言风格阐述了他对气候问题的基本看法,将人类活动对气候的负面影响看作是一场赌博,将面临难以预料的后果,若不设法及时全身退出,人类社会生存所依赖的气候环境可能面临失控的风险。使用“赌场”这个词很形象,或许是受到了经济学领域曾发生的著名赌博案例的影响。尽管通过多方努力,世界大多数国家签署了《巴黎协定》,为人类社会合作应对气候变化奠定了坚实基础,但仍存在诸多难点和问题,有效的协调机制还有待进一步确立,仅从地球环境已发生的演变趋势看,并不乐观。William D.Nordhaus,winner of the 2018 Nobel Prize in Economics,has written a monograph on climate issues named The Climate Casino,which expounds his basic views on climate issues in a popular language style,and regards the negative impact of human activities on climate as a gamble with unpredictable consequences.If human beings do not exit in a timely manner,the climate environment on which the human society depends may face the risk of losing control.The vivid use of the word“casino”is perhaps influenced by the famous gambling cases in the field of economics.Although most of the countries signed the Paris Agreement through multiple efforts,laying a solid foundation for the cooperation of human society to address climate change,there are still many difficulties and problems,and an effective coordination mechanism needs to be further established.Solely from the evolution trend of the Earth’s environment that has already appeared,the future is not optimistic.

关 键 词：气候风险 赌场 生态平衡 临界点 人类选择 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]