农民工行业转移就业研究——基于马尔可夫链模型的分析  

Study on Career Changing Employment of Migrant Workers--Analysis Based on Markov Chain Model

作　　者：马庆[1] 丁文将 邓关军 Ma Qing;Ding Wenjiang;Deng Guanjun

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学天府学院

出　　处：《中国人事科学》2023年第9期82-92,共11页Chinese Personnel Science

摘　　要：文章采用马尔可夫链方法分析了我国2013—2022年间农民工的行业转移就业情况,并预测了“十四五”期间就业结构的变动趋势。研究表明,农民工倾向于选择在同行业就业,而非跨行业流动,总体就业较为稳定。其中,交通运输仓储和邮政业是就业最为稳定的行业,其次是批发和零售业等低端服务业,制造业、建筑业的就业稳定性相对较低。在跨行业转移就业时,农民工主要流向技术门槛较低的低端服务业,尤其是批发和零售业、居民服务修理和其他服务业,而较少流入第二产业,很少回流到农业。文章预测,“十四五”中后期农民工在第二产业的就业比重将逐步下降、在低端服务业的就业比重将持续上升。新时期促进农民工就业,应注重低端服务业发展,制订农民工技能培训计划,加强地区间劳务合作,鼓励发展高技能制造业,为农民工提供更多的就业机会,稳定农民工就业。This paper adopts the Markov chain method to analyze the industry transfer employment situation of migrant workers in China from 2013 to 2022,and predicts the change trend of the employment structure during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.The study shows that migrant workers tend to choose employment in the same industry rather than cross industry mobility,and overall employment is relatively stable.Among them,the transportation and warehousing industry and the post industry are the two industries with the most stable employment,followed by low-end service industries such as wholesale and retail,and manufacturing.The employment stability of the construction industry is relatively low.During cross-industry transfer employment,migrant workers mainly flow to low-end service industries with lower technological barriers,especially wholesale and retail industries,residential service repair and other service industries,while less flow into the secondary industry and rarely return to agriculture.This paper predicts that,in the middle and later stages of the 14th Five-Year Plan the employment proportion of migrant workers in the secondary industry will gradually decrease,while the employment proportion in the low-end service industry will continue to rise.In order to promote the employment of migrant workers in the new era,attention should be paid to the development of low-end service industries,skill training plans for migrant workers should be formulated,labor cooperation between regions should be strengthened,and the development of high-skilled manufacturing industries should be encouraged to provide more employment opportunities for migrant workers and stabilize their employment.

关 键 词：农民工 马尔可夫链 行业转移就业 转移概率 就业结构 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]