中国区域经济协调发展的统计测度与时空分异研究  

Statistical Measurement and Spatiotemporal Differentiation of Coordinated Development of Regional Economy in China

作　　者：张智鹏 姜玉英 Zhang Zhipeng;Jiang Yuying(School of Management Science and Engineering,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100098,China;Science Education Department,Beijing Institute of Graphic Communication,Beijing 102627,China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学管理科学与工程学院,北京100098 [2]北京印刷学院基础部,北京102627

出　　处：《统计与决策》2023年第19期112-116,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：全国统计科学研究重点项目(2022LZ30)。

摘　　要：文章引入逆绝对离差方法,对中国区域经济协调发展水平进行了综合测度,并通过改进区域竞争力、位序-规模、耦合-协调以及空间面板杜宾模型,探究了区域经济协调发展水平的时空分异特征及其影响因素。结果显示:样本期间,中国区域经济协调发展水平总体上呈现波动上升趋势,且其变化趋势在时间上具有周期性、在空间上具有“地域差异性”的特征。具体地,区域经济协调发展在竞争力上呈现东、中、西部地区依次“梯度”递减效应;在位序-规模上表现为上升趋势并具有稳定性;在耦合协调效应上呈现由中级向高级过渡的耦合协调发展趋势,但该趋势在信息流与交通流中尚未表现出明显的区位效应。此外,人口规模、产业结构是有效推动区域经济协调发展的关键因素,城乡差距、能源消耗是扩大区域经济发展不平衡程度的潜在因素。This paper introduces the inverse absolute dispersion method to comprehensively measure the coordinated devel⁃opment level of regional economy in China,and then explores the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of the coordinated development level of regional economy by improving the regional competitiveness,order-scale,cou⁃pling-coordination and spatial panel Durbin model.The results are shown as follows:During the sampling period,the coordinated development level of China’s regional economy generally shows a trend of fluctuation and rise,and its change trend is cyclical in time and has“regional differences”in space.Specifically,the coordinated development of regional economy presents a“gradi⁃ent”decreasing effect in the east,middle and west regions in order of competitiveness,and shows an upward trend and stability in terms of order-scale.The coupling coordination effect shows a transition trend from intermediate to advanced,but this trend has not shown obvious locational effect in information flow and traffic flow.In addition,population size and industrial structure are the key factors to effectively promote the coordinated development of regional economy;the gap between urban and rural areas and energy consumption are potential factors to expand the degree of regional economic development imbalance.

关 键 词：区域经济协调发展 位序-规模 异质性 逆绝对离差 

分 类 号：F207[经济管理—国民经济] C812[社会学—统计学]