竞争性增长与中国地区间通货膨胀差异形成机制——基于空间计量的“宾大-巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应”分析  

Economic Competitive Growth and Determinants of the Formation Mechanism of Regional Inflation Differentials in China:Analysis of the Penn-Balassa-Samuelson Effect Based on Spatial Econometrics

作　　者：杨长江[1] 李博 YANG Changjiang;LI Bo(School of Economics,Fudan University)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433

出　　处：《金融研究》2023年第7期21-39,共19页Journal of Financial Research

摘　　要：本文旨在将研究地区间通货膨胀差异的基于生产率视角的巴萨效应理论改进为一个更系统、适合于经济体内部的分析框架。本文验证了1992-2019年间中国28个省、自治区和直辖市的通胀和经济增长间存在宾大效应。在分析巴萨效应是否可以解释国内宾大效应时,本文利用空间计量方法发现巴萨效应的理论核心成立,并确认劳动力市场地区间存在分割是其成立的前提;同时,本文也发现两个悖论:一是贸易品价格的一价定律偏离与部门间相对价格效应都是通胀差异产生的重要原因;二是制造业相对生产率增长更快的省份,总通胀率反而更低。本文认为这与现代服务业发展特征有关,反映该特征的国内巴萨效应理论模型可以解释中国地区间通胀差异的形成机制。Inter-regional inflation differentials within an economy are affected by multiple factors,such as the effectiveness of monetary policy and the coordinated development of regional economies,and have been a focus of research since the establishment of the euro.The prevailing research method in this field is based on the theory of the Balassa-Samuelson effect(hereinafter referred to the BS effect),which was originally used in the dichotomy framework as the basis of a cross-border real exchange rates model.However,it remains under debate whether BS effect theory can be applied within a country,and whether there are new features within a country is also highly noteworthy.Regional inflation dfferentials are particularly important for a large country like China,which has undergone rapid economic transformation and upgrading in recent decades.Moreover,inter-regional competitive growth is recognized as an important driving force of China's“economic miracle”.Thus,the Penn-BS effect paradigm based on the perspective of growth and productivity is especially relevant for analyzing the inflation differentials between regions in China.However,very few studies take this perspective,and there are also some problems that need to be clarified.In this study,we adopt the Penn-BS effect analysis paradigm for the first time to examine the basic pattern,the fluctuation sources,and then the driving forces of inflation differentials.We use the spatial econometric model to study the mechanism of formation of medium-to long-term inflation differentials within China and find that the theoretical core of the BS effect applies to the inflation differentials within China.However,we also find that the theoretical core of the BS effect shows new characteristics,which may be related to the breaking of the original dichotomy framework under the servitization trend of manufacturing.We begin by examining the basic pattern the regional inflation differentials in China from the perspective of economic growth and analyzing whether the Penn effect or

关 键 词：地区间通货膨胀差异 宾大效应 巴萨效应 空间计量 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学] F124