影子银行监管的风险防范和信贷紧缩效应——来自资管新规的证据  

Risk Prevention and Credit Tightening Effects of Shadow Banking Regulation:Evidence from China's New Asset Management Regulations

作　　者：刘承昊 刘冲[1] 刘莉亚[1] LIU Chenghao;LIU Chong;LIU Liya(School of Finance,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai Institute of International Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学金融学院/上海财经大学滴水湖高级金融学院/上海国际金融与经济研究院,上海200433

出　　处：《金融研究》2023年第7期40-56,共17页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家自然科学面上项目(72273084);应急管理项目“双碳目标下我国零碳金融宏观管理框架和政策研究”资助

摘　　要：资管新规有效防范化解了影子银行带来的潜在系统性风险,同时对商业银行的风险偏好与资产负债业务产生了一定影响。本文利用2014-2020年上市银行半年度数据,基于资管新规政策,使用双重差分模型实证研究影子银行监管对商业银行风险承担与信贷供给的影响。结果发现:第一,相较低风险行业,资管新规显著降低了商业银行对高风险行业的信贷投放,即起到风险防范作用;第二,资管新规抑制了理财产品的发放,导致银行融资渠道收缩,进而引起整体信贷收缩;第三,为承接理财资金,银行加剧了存款竞争,存款利率因此抬升,并传导至贷款利率。进一步研究发现,资管新规削弱了货币政策传导的有效性。本文的研究对于理解实体经济的融资困境有一定启示意义。Starting in 2014,China introduced a series of regulatory measures to prevent or resolve the risks associated with shadow banking.A key regulation is the“Guiding Opinions on the Regulation of Asset Management Business of Financial Institutions,”which was issued in April 2018 and is commonly known as the“New Asset Management Regulations.”This regulation aims to address specific issues,such as multi-layered nesting,rigid redemption commitments,and regulatory arbitrage,while also guiding the flow of social funds toward the real economy and effectively controlling systemic risks.China's shadow banking sector is typified by wealth management products,trust,and entrusted loan businesses,with bank wealth management products being the largest component.Funds raised through wealth management products by commercial banks are often channeled into non-standard assets through complex shadow banking systems in efforts to seek high returns.This leads to serious problems,such as fund idling and maturity mismatch,thereby accumulating substantial risks.The New Asset Management Regulations effectively restrain the issuance of bank wealth management products and reduce bank risks.Commercial banks can issue wealth management products to alleviate competition for funds from other banks and non-bank financial institutions.Thus,these products generate supplementary finance under interest rate liberalization.If banks'issuance of wealth management products is hindered,it may lead to deposit competition between commercial banks.According to data released by the People's Bank of China,structured deposits,which had zero year-on-year growth in April 2017,grew by nearly 50%in March 2018,with the year-on-year growth rate of personal structured deposits approaching 80%in July 2018.This rapid growth of deposits is largely driven by banks offering attractive high deposit interest rates.However,the high cost of deposits may be transmited to the real economy through loans.Therefore,while the New Asset Management Regulations have effectively m

关 键 词：影子银行监管 存款成本 资管新规 信贷供应 

分 类 号：F832.2[经济管理—金融学] F832.51