Multi-wing butterfly effects on catastrophic rockslides  

作　　者：Ningsheng Chen Shufeng Tian Fawu Wang Peijun Shi Lihong Liu Miaoyuan Xiao Enlong Liu Wenqing Tang Mahfuzur Rahman Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela 

机构地区：[1]Key Lab of Mountain Hazards and Surface Processes,Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610041,China [2]Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability,Xining 810016,China [3]Kathmandu Center for Research and Education,Chinese Academy of Sciences-Tribhuvan University,Beijing 100101,China [4]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China [5]College of Civil Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China [6]State Key Laboratory of Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China [7]Safety Technology Center of Sichuan Bureau of the National Mine Safety Administration,Chengdu 610046,China [8]Engineering Design&Research Institute of Sichuan University Co.,Ltd,Chengdu 610041,China [9]State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering,College of Water Resources and Hydropower,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China [10]Chengdu Center,China Geological Survey,Chengdu 610081,China [11]Department of Civil Engineering,International University of Business Agriculture and Technology,Dhaka 1230,Bangladesh [12]Department of Forest Sciences,Faculty of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences,University of La Frontera,Temuco 4780000,Chile

出　　处：《Geoscience Frontiers》2023年第6期20-29,共10页地学前缘（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U20A20110);the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(Grant No.2019QZKK0906);the Key R&D Projects of Tibet Autonomous Region Science and Technology Pro ject(Grant No.XZ202101ZD0013G);the International Cooperation Overseas Platform Project,CAS(Grant No.131C11KYSB20200033);the Outstanding Talent Project of Thousand Talents Program in China.

摘　　要：The catastrophic rockslide,which frequently triggers numerous severe disasters worldwide,has drawn much attention globally;however,understanding the initiation mechanism of catastrophic rockslides in the absence of typical single triggering factors related to strong seismic activity or torrential precipitation continues to be challenging within the global scientific community.This study aims to determine the mechanism of the three largest catastrophic rockslides in the eastern Tibetan Plateau,Yigong,Xinmo,and Baige,over the past 20 years using field investigation,remote sensing,and runoff analysis.Instead of the conventional driving factors of heavy rainfall and strong earthquakes,the multi-wing butterfly effects(MWBE)of climatic factors and weak earthquakes are for the first time identified as drivers of the catastrophic rockslide disasters.First,strong tectonic uplift,fast fluvial incision,high-density faults,and large regional water confluence formed the slopes in the critical regime,creating the source conditions of rockslide.Second,the MWBE of early dry-heat events and antecedent rainfall,combined with imminent weak earthquakes,initiated rockslide.Third,the delayed amplified runoff moving toward the sliding surface and lowering the strength of the locking-rock segment constituted the fundamental mechanism of the MWBE on rockslide.The catastrophic rockslide was ultimately inferred to be a nonlinear chaotic process;however,prediction and forecasting of rockslide based on the MWBE in the early stages are possible and essential.This finding presents a new perspective concerning forecasting progressive landslides.

关 键 词：Catastrophic rockslide Slope failure Multi-wing butterfly effect Tibetan Plateau Delayed amplified runoff 

分 类 号：TV41[水利工程—水工结构工程]