计及MCMC方法的电网概率检修计划指标优化模型  

Power grid probabilistic maintenance plan index optimization model with MCMC method

作　　者：郭子强 宋涛 郭杰 王健 张天毅 Guo Ziqiang;Song Tao;Guo Jie;Wang Jian;Zhang Tianyi(Lanzhou Power Supply Company,State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]国网甘肃省电力公司兰州供电公司,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《电子技术应用》2023年第10期15-22,共8页Application of Electronic Technique

基　　金：国家电网有限公司科技项目(B3270122000D)。

摘　　要：电力检修是保证电力系统正常运行的重要环节,有效的电力检修计划安排将大幅提升电网运行的可靠性。通过设备状态分级、设备运行年限、设备运行成本等指标构建概率检修模型,实现检修计划的优化,采用概率检修计划优化策略提高电网可靠性和经济性指标,并在检修模型采用马尔可夫链-蒙特卡洛法用于提高模型准确度。最后通过仿真对概率检修模型与传统检修模型进行分析比较,在确定最优检修概率的同时,突显了概率检修模型的优越性,为电力产业价值链体系中电力检修环节的完善提供理论基础。Effective power maintenance schedule will significantly increase the reliability of power grid operation as a crucial component of assuring the normal operation of the power system.In order to achieve the optimization of the maintenance plan,a probabilistic maintenance model is created in this work using equipment condition categorization,equipment operation life,equip‐ment operation cost,and other indicators.The Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach is utilized in the maintenance model to in‐crease model accuracy,and the probabilistic maintenance plan optimization strategy is employed to improve the reliability and economic indicators of the power grid.Finally,simulation is used to assess and compare the probabilistic maintenance model and the conventional maintenance model.The superiority of the probabilistic maintenance model,which offers a theoretical founda‐tion for the enhancement of the power maintenance link in the power industry value chain system,is highlighted while determin‐ing the best maintenance probability.

关 键 词：概率检修 状态分级 可靠性 经济性 马尔可夫链-蒙特卡洛法 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]