一次江淮暴雨高分辨率数值预报中云微物理方案敏感性分析  

Sensitivity analysis of cloud microphysical schemes for high-resolution numerical forecasting of a rainstorm over the Yangtze River Basin

作　　者：孟泽华 高彦青 马旭林[1] 周勃旸 MENG Zehua;GAO Yanqing;MA Xulin;ZHOU Boyang(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education(KLME),Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Shanghai Ecological Forecasting and Remote Sensing Center,Shanghai 200030,China;Qingdao Air Traffic Management Station of Civil Aviation of China,Qingdao 266108,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]上海市生态气象与卫星遥感中心,上海200030 [3]中国民用航空青岛空中交通管理站,山东青岛266108

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2023年第5期765-775,共11页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(U2242213);国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1506702)。

摘　　要：基于全可压非静力中尺度预报模式WRF,选取Lin、WSM3、WSM5、WSM6、Goddard五种云微物理方案和Kain-Fritsch积云对流参数化方案,对2017年6月10日的江淮暴雨过程开展高分辨率数值预报试验,重点研究了云微物理方案对强降水预报的敏感性。结果表明:Lin方案模拟的局地暴雨区降水量随时间的演变与实况较为吻合,但降雨量偏小,WSM5、WSM6和Goddard方案模拟的降水量级与实况更为吻合;不同云微物理方案对此次江淮暴雨的预报能力具有明显差异,小雨量区域的模拟效果基本一致,暴雨和大暴雨对云微物理方案更加敏感;云中水成物的三维结构特征差异明显,其水成物含量也显著不同。WSM5方案模拟的雨水和云水含量较高,其降水量和落区质量较好;不同微物理方案产生差异明显的垂直速度,导致云量、云高有所差异,进而影响降水预报的性能,说明选用更为敏感的云微物理方案对降水预报质量的改善具有重要作用。Five different cloud microphysical process parameterization schemes in the mesoscale numerical model WRF3.9 were used to simulate a heavy rainfall event in the Yangtze River Basin from June 9 to 10,2017.This study discusses the impact of varying cloud microphysical schemes on the simulation of rainstorms in the Yangtze River Basin.The experiments conducted in this research reveal that the rainstorm process exhibits greater sensitivity to changes in cloud microphysical processes compared to the precipitation process,whether it’s light or heavy rain.The precipitation trend simulated by the Lin scheme aligns with observed data,but underestimates precipitation.The WSM5 scheme demonstrates the most favorable overall performance,surpassing other schemes in simulating both precipitation and its spatial distribution.Conversely,the Goddard scheme exhibits the least favorable results.Examination of the structural evolution of hydrometeors within the clouds indicates that the well-simulated WSM5 scheme features higher levels of rainwater,cloud water,snow,and ice water,with temporal evolution aligning with ground precipitation intensity.Furthermore,differences in vertical velocity induced by distinct microphysical schemes result in variations in cloud cover and cloud height above the precipitation area,thereby influencing the model’s simulation accuracy for precipitation processes.

关 键 词：数值预报 江淮暴雨 云微物理方案 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]