南方河流径流序列突变研究——以贺江为例  

Mutation of Runoff Sequence of River in Southern China:Taking Hejiang River as an Example

作　　者：孔兰[1,2] 杨磊[3] 陈晓宏 KONG Lan;YANG Lei;CHEN Xiaohong(China Water Resources Pearl River Planning Surveying and Designing Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510610,China;Center for Water Ecological Engineering,Pearl River Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of the Water Resources,Guangzhou 510610,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;School of Civil Engineering,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;Guangdong Engineering Technology Research Center of Water Security Regulation and Control for Southern China,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China)

机构地区：[1]中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司,广州510610 [2]水利部珠江水利委员会水生态工程中心,广州510610 [3]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098 [4]中山大学土木工程学院,广州510275 [5]广东省华南地区水安全调控工程技术研究中心,广州510275 [6]华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室,广州510275

出　　处：《三峡生态环境监测》2023年第3期55-60,共6页Ecology and Environmental Monitoring of Three Gorges

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U1911204,51861125203);国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3001000)。

摘　　要：为掌握南方河流水文变化特征,有效应对极端洪旱灾害,以贺江控制性水文站古榄站1956-2010年共55年的年平均流量序列数据,利用有序聚类分析法、滑动t检验法和里海哈林法等多种突变分析方法,计算分析了贺江水文时间序列的突变特征。结果表明:(1)贺江年径流序列在1991年产生了突变现象;(2)年平均流量序列突变是自然与人为活动共同影响的结果,产生突变的主要驱动力是降雨等气候变化。识别贺江径流序列的突变特征可为贺江流域合理开发利用及防灾减灾提供参考。To grasp the hydrological characteristics of southern river sqstem and effectively responsd to extreme flood and drought,based on the 55-year annual average discharge sequence data of the Hejiang Control Hydrological Station Gulan Station from 1956 to 2010,using various mutation analysis methods such as ordered cluster analysis,sliding t test and Lee-Hehinian method,the au-thors calculate and analyzed the sudden change characteristics of Hejiang hydrological time series.The results show that:(1)the an-nual runoff series of the Hejiang River had a sudden change in 1991;(2)the annual average flow series sudden change is the result of the joint influence of natural and human activities,and the main driving force for the sudden change of the Hejiang River is rain-fall and other climate changes.Identifying the abrupt change characteristics of the Hejiang runoff sequence can provide a reference for rational development and utilization and disaster prevention and mitigation of the Hejiang River basin.

关 键 词：年平均径流序列 突变点 贺江 

分 类 号：X83[环境科学与工程—环境工程]