石河子地区葡萄越冬气候及终霜冻致灾风险评价  

Disaster Risk Assessment of Overwintering Climate and Final Frost on Grapes in Shihezi

作　　者：季芬 王进 杜峰 侯慧杰 刘勇 杨明凤 JI Fen;WANG Jin;DU Feng;HOU Hui-jie;LIU Yong;YANG Ming-feng(Institute of Desert Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Urumqi 830002,China;Wulanwusu Field Scientific Observation and Research Station of Ecology and Agrometeorology/Wulanwusu Agro-meteorological Station,Shiheizi 832021,China;National Observation and Research Station of Desert Meteorology,Taklimakan Desert of Xinjiang/Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Meteorology and Sandstorm/Taklimakan Desert Meteorology Field Experiment Station,China Meteorological Administration,Bayinguoleng 841000,China;Shihezi Meteorological Station,Shihezi 832000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]新疆乌兰乌苏生态与农业气象野外科学观测研究站/乌兰乌苏农业气象试验站,新疆石河子832021 [3]新疆塔克拉玛干沙漠气象国家野外科学观测研究站/新疆沙漠气象与沙尘暴重点实验室/中国气象局塔克拉玛干沙漠气象野外科学试验基地,新疆巴音郭楞841000 [4]石河子市气象站,新疆石河子832000

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2023年第8期157-162,共6页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：中国沙漠科学研究基金项目“北疆地区葡萄花期光温灾害指标体系研究”(Sqj2021012);新疆维吾尔自治区“三农”骨干人才培养项目“蟠桃气候品质评价认证技术研究”(2022SNGGCY054)。

摘　　要：为研究寒冷期温度变化及终霜冻变化特征对石河子地区葡萄产业安全生产的影响,利用石河子地区1964—2022年气象资料和葡萄物候期资料,应用气候诊断分析方法分析了冬季气温变化及终霜冻对葡萄的影响,评价了霜冻致灾风险强度。结果表明,石河子地区1—2月土层厚度为40 cm的地温<-6.0℃的概率介于23%~30%之间,冬季葡萄保温层应>40 cm。1—2月平均最低气温对葡萄萌芽期影响显著。葡萄4月中旬开墩上架终霜冻风险为79.7%;5月1日之后的终霜冻风险为25.4%。葡萄终霜冻致灾风险强度平均为47.5%,重度致灾(70%<ST≤100%)概率为28.8%,为3年1次。1964—2022年终霜冻致灾风险强度呈下降趋势,2001—2022年较之前平均下降了约20个百分点。综上所述,受气候变暖的影响石河子地区冬季气温升高、终霜冻提前结束对葡萄越冬和春季生长有利,尽管终霜冻致灾风险强度总体呈减弱趋势,但终霜冻日提前的趋势并不稳定,春季防霜冻仍是葡萄生产中的重要环节。In order to study the effect of the change of temperature and final frost in cold period on the safe development of grape industry in Shihezi area,the meteorological data and grape phenology data from 1964 to 2022 in Shihezi area were useed to analyze the effects of winter temperature change and final frost on grapes by climate diagnosis and analysis method,and the frost disaster risk intensity was evaluated.The results showed that the probability of 40 cm ground temperature<-6.0℃in Shihezi area from January to February was between 23%and 30%,and the grape insulation layer should be more than 40 cm in winter.The average minimum temperature from January to February had a significant effect on grape germination.The risk of final frost was 79.7%in mid-April.The risk of final frost after May 1 was 25.4%.The average risk intensity of grape final frost disaster was 47.5%,and the probability of severe frost disaster(70%<ST≤100%)was 28.8%,which was once in three years.The intensity of final frost disaster risk during 1964~2022 showed a downward trend,and during 2001~2022 it decreased by about 20 percentage points on average compared with the previous period.In conclusion,under the influence of climate warming,the increase of winter temperature and the early end of the final frost in Shihezi area are beneficial to the overwinter and spring growth of grapes.Although the intensity of the disaster risk caused by the end frost is generally decreasing,the trend of the advance of the end frost date is not stable,and spring frost prevention is still an important link in grape production.

关 键 词：越冬期 萌芽期 最低气温 终霜冻 致灾风险 

分 类 号：S663.1[农业科学—果树学]