电力现货市场电价模式下的中国风电站投资评价模型研究  

Research on the Investment Evaluation Model of Wind Power Station under the Current Electricity Spot Market Price Mode in China

作　　者：侯健生 黄红辉 王赢聪 金坚锋 郭鸿健 刘国坚 张少崇 赵文会 HOU Jian-sheng;HUANG Hong-hui;WANG Ying-cong;JIN Jian-feng;GUO Hong-jian;LIU Guo-jian;ZHANG Shao-chong;ZHAO Wen-hui(State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co.,Ltd.Jinhua Power Supply Company,Jinhua 321000,China;State Grid Hebei North Electric Power Co.,Ltd.Tangshan Power Supply Company,Tangshan 063000,China;School of Economics and Management,Shanghai University of Electric Power,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]国网浙江省电力有限公司金华供电公司,金华321000 [2]国网冀北电力有限公司唐山供电公司,唐山063000 [3]上海电力大学经济与管理学院,上海201306

出　　处：《价值工程》2023年第29期15-17,共3页Value Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于节能减排的发电权与排污权组合交易模型”(编号:71403163)。

摘　　要：“十四五”规划突出了市场化低成本优先发展可再生能源战略,未来风电投资市场前景广阔,风力发电厂商利润问题也得到了业界关注。本文对现有三种电价模式进行建模分析,并通过模型预测出风速及风力发电数据,最后针对不同资源区的风电站进行实例分析。结果表明:在现行电力现货市场条件下,差价合约模式能够有效抵御价格不确定性带来的风险,保证投资经济性,促进风电行业健康持续发展。The country's 14th Five-Year Plan highlights the market-oriented low-cost priority development of renewable energy strategy.The future wind power investment market has a broad prospect,and the profit of wind power manufacturers has also attracted the attention of the industry.In this paper,the existing three electricity price models are modeled and analyzed,and the wind speed and wind power generation data are predicted by the model.Finally,the wind power stations in different resource areas are analyzed.The results show that under the current electricity spot market conditions,the CFD model can effectively resist the risks caused by price uncertainty,ensure investment economy,and promote the healthy and sustainable development of the wind power industry.

关 键 词：风电站投资 电价模式 收益模型 ARMA模型 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]