人民币汇率形成机制的当前形势与未来方向——“8.11”汇改八周年回顾与展望  

The Current Situation and Future Direction of the RMB Exchange Rate Formation System——A Review of the Eighth Year after the 8.11 RMB Exchange Rate Regime Reform

作　　者：陈胤默 张明[2,3] CHEN Yin-mo;ZHANG Ming(Business School of Beijing Language and Culture University;Institute of Finance&Banking,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;The National Institution for Finance&Development,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]北京语言大学商学院,北京100083 [2]中国社会科学院金融研究所,北京100710 [3]中国社会科学院国家金融与发展实验室,北京100710

出　　处：《当代金融研究》2023年第10期66-75,共10页Journal of Contemporary Financial Research

基　　金：北京语言大学院级项目(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金)“美国对IMF贷款决策偏好影响研究”(23YJ090002);国家社会科学基金项目“数字赋能下金融普惠性的比较测评与增强机理多维度研究”(21BJL087);上海交通大学现代金融研究基金项目资助“国际体系分化中的人民币国际化”。

摘　　要：本文梳理2015年“8.11”汇改八年以来,人民币汇率制度市场化改革的政策演变与汇改效果。从汇改政策演变来看,人民币汇率制度改革的主基调是围绕人民币汇率中间价定价模型进行改革,并辅之以CFETS篮子货币的数量和权重调整。从汇改效果来看,“8.11”汇改以来人民币汇率波动幅度逐渐变大,市场供求决定人民币汇率的程度越来越高。随着人民币汇率市场化程度的上升,人民币汇率逐渐走出独立行情,使得人民币对部分国家而言已经成为重要的货币锚。从汇改方向来看,实现自由浮动是人民币汇改的终极目标,但受制于复杂的国内外宏观经济形势,短期内较难实现。在过渡期内,本文建议设立人民币篮子汇率的年度宽幅目标区制度。This paper reviews the policy evolution and effects of the market-oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate regime in the eight years since the 8.11 RMB Exchange Rate Regime Reform.From the perspective of the evolution of exchange rate regime reform policies,the main tone of the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime has been the reform of the pricing model of the central parity of the RMB exchange rate,supplemented by the adjustment of the number and weight of CFETS.From the perspective of the effect of the exchange rate regime reform,the fluctuation range of the RMB exchange rate has gradually increased since the“8.11”exchange rate regime reform,and market supply and demand determine the RMB exchange rate to an increasing extent.With the rise of the marketization of the RMB exchange rate regime,the RMB exchange rate has gradually stepped out of the independent market,making the RMB an important currency anchor for some countries.From the perspective of the direction of exchange rate regime reform,realizing freedom floating is the ultimate goal of RMB regime reform.However,due to the complex macroeconomic situation at home and abroad,it is difficult to achieve in the short term.During the transitional period,it is proposed to establish an annual broad target zone regime for the RMB basket exchange rate.

关 键 词：“8.11”汇改 人民币汇率 市场化改革 年度宽幅目标区制度 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]