融合N-K模型的复杂网络架桥机施工安全风险因素分析  

Construction safety risk analysis of bridge girder-erecting machine based on complex network integrating N-K model

作　　者：王海英[1] 楚林 许建[2] WANG Haiying;CHU Lin;XU Jian(School of Construction Machinery,Chang'an University,Xi'an Shaanxi 710064,China;School of Management,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an Shaanxi 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学工程机械学院,陕西西安710064 [2]西安科技大学管理学院,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2023年第9期10-17,共8页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：陕西省交通运输厅科技项目(18-33X,21-04X)。

摘　　要：为识别导致架桥机施工时发生安全事故的关键致因和链路,提出一种融合N-K模型的复杂网络架桥机施工安全事故风险因素分析法。首先,建立2000-2022年期间的架桥机事故案例库,分析事故致因,将架桥机施工安全事故风险因素归纳为4个一级风险因素和24个二级风险因素;然后,以事故类型和二级风险因素为节点,以致因关联为边,建立架桥机施工安全事故致因复杂网络模型,计算风险因素节点的亲近中心度和中介中心度;最后,建立N-K模型耦合分析一级风险因素,利用耦合交互信息值优化复杂网络风险因素节点的中心度,通过风险因素可达性分析和全局主路径分析,分别得到导致架桥机事故的7个关键致因和7条关键链路。结果表明:施工单位管理不到位、安全生产检查不充分2项管理因素的亲近中心度和中介中心度值较高。监理单位失职→施工单位管理不到位→安全生产检查不充分关键链路风险最大,针对这些关键风险因素和链路在架桥机施工过程中应重点管控。采用融合N-K模型的复杂网络分析得到的架桥机施工安全关键致因和链路与事故调查结论一致,准确实现了架桥机施工安全事故风险辨识。To identify the critical causes and paths of bridge girder-erecting machine accidents in construction engineering,a risk factor analysis method based on complex network combined with N-K model was proposed.Firstly,the cases database of bridge erecting machine accidents between 2000-2022 was established,and the accident causes of bridge girder-erecting machine were classified into four first-level risk factors and twenty-four second-level risk factors by analyzing the cause of the accidents.Then,a complex network model with major accident types and the second-level risk factors as nodes and their correlations as edges was established,and the closeness centrality and betweenness centrality of risk factor nodes were calculated.Finally,the N-K model was developed for the first-level risk factor coupling analysis,and the centrality of the risk factor nodes was optimized by using the coupled interactive information.Through the accessibility analysis of risk factors and global main path analysis,7 key causes and 7 key links of bridge machine accidents were obtained respectively.The results show that the weak management of construction unit and the insufficient safety production inspection have the high value of closeness centrality and betweenness centrality.The biggest risk is from the path of duty dereliction of supervision unit→the weak management of construction unit→the insufficient safety production critical.So,all these key causes and paths can be taken as the focus of safety control during the construction of bridge girder-erecting machine.The key cause of bridge girder-erecting machine construction safety obtained by complex network integrating with N-K model is consistent with the conclusion of accident investigation,and the risk identification of girder-erecting machine construction safety accident is accurately realized.

关 键 词：N-K模型 复杂网络 架桥机 施工安全风险因素 关键致因 关键链路 

分 类 号：X948[环境科学与工程—安全科学]