关中地区气象干旱时空变化特征分析  

Analysis of temporal and spatial variation characteristics of meteorological drought in Guanzhong Area

作　　者：薛瑞华 罗军刚[1] 李少轩 景鑫 XUE Ruihua;LUO Jungang;LI Shaoxuan;JING Xin(State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an 710048,China)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,陕西西安710048

出　　处：《西安理工大学学报》2023年第2期151-161,共11页Journal of Xi'an University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51679186);陕西水利科技计划项目(2018slkj-4)。

摘　　要：干旱对农业和供水的影响,给地区造成了十分严重的经济损失,对关中地区进行干旱特征分析可为防旱抗旱工作提供指导。本文应用SPI12指数结合游程理论提取并分析关中地区的干旱特征,并通过Copula函数进行干旱历时与干旱烈度的重现期计算。结果表明:①Gaussian、Clayton以及BB1函数更适用于关中地区干旱特征联合分布计算;②近年来关中地区整体干旱情况有所加剧,其中宝鸡市与渭南市干旱加重较为明显;③宝鸡市、咸阳市以及西安市干旱烈度大、历时长,干旱情况较为严重,渭南市次之,铜川市干旱情况较轻;④关中地区长重现期主要分布在铜川市以及渭南市西北部地区,短重现期主要分布在宝鸡市、西安市西部以及渭南市东部少部分地区。The impact of drought on agriculture and water supply has caused significant economic losses to the region.An analysis of drought characteristics of the Guanzhong Area can be of guidance for drought prevention and drought relief work.In this paper,we apply the SPI12 index combined with run-length theory to extract and analyze the drought characteristics of Guanzhong Area,and perform the recurrence period calculation of drought ephemeris and drought intensity by Copula function.The results showed that:①Gaussian,Clayton and BB1 functions are more suitable for calculating the joint distribution of drought characteristics in Guanzhong Area.②In recent years,the overall drought situation in Guanzhong has increased,especially in Baoji City and Weinan City.③In Baoji,Xianyang and Xi an,the intensity of drought was high and the duration was long,so the drought situation was more serious;Weinan was next,and Tongchuan was less arid.④In Guanzhong Area,the long return period is mainly distributed in Tongchuan and northwest Weinan,while the short return period is mainly distributed in Baoji,west Xi’an and a few parts of eastern Weinan.

关 键 词：SPI12 贝叶斯框架 COPULA函数 重现期 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]