地区竞争、联盟关系与不对称外交战略  

Regional Competition,Alignment Relationships and Asymmetric Statecraft

作　　者：黄宇兴 Huang Yuxing(the Department of International Relations,Tsinghua University)

机构地区：[1]清华大学国际关系学系,北京100084

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2023年第9期58-82,169,170,共27页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：清华大学自主科研计划“权力转移背景下的联盟研判”(项目批准号:2021THZWJC16)的研究成果。

摘　　要：一个大国在什么情况下会对多个中小国家采取一视同仁或区别对待的政策?地区竞争理论认为,一个大国的地区竞争者数量及其联盟关系塑造了该大国对周边多个中小国家的政策。面对不同数量的地区竞争者,一个大国对多个中小盟国/非盟国采取一视同仁或区别对待的政策。地区竞争理论改进了外部威胁理论和国内政治—意识形态理论,引入援助能力界定“竞争者”,引入地区竞争和关系变量增加理论的动态性,从而解释相关国家对外政策的变化。1919—1935年法国对中东欧盟国的政策和1933—1941年苏联对中东欧非盟国的政策展示了地区竞争理论的解释力。面对多个弱小盟国,随着法国竞争者数量的增加,其政策由区别对待变为一视同仁;面对多个弱小非盟国,随着苏联竞争者数量的减少,其政策由区别对待变为一视同仁。地区竞争理论具有现实意义。在和平发展过程中,中国坚持不结盟政策。中国应区分不同地区的竞争者,一视同仁地对待南海争端相关国家并区别对待南亚邻国。Under what circumstances does a great power deal with multiple weaker neighbors through either uniform or selective strategies? A regional competition theory argues that the number of regional competitors and alignment relationships both shape a great power's regional diplomacy,with regard to uniform strategies or selective strategies.To engage with regional competitors in different contexts,a great power adopts either uniform strategies or selective strategies toward weaker allies or non-allied states.The regional competition theory advances both external threat theory and domestic-ideological theory.The regional competition theory enables a more dynamic way to account for foreign policy changes by integrating aid providing capability,regional competition,and relationship variables.The theory is evaluated based upon two historical cases:French policies in Central-Eastern Europe during 1919-1935 and Soviet policies in the same region during 1933-1941.These cases demonstrate that the regional competition theory offers better explanations than the existing scholarship on asymmetric statecraft.As the number of regional competitors increased,France changed its selective strategies to uniform strategies toward weaker allies.As the number of regional competitors decreased,the Soviet Union changed its selective strategies to uniform strategies toward weaker non-allied states.The regional competition theory is of policy implications.Owing to its non-alignment policy,China has not given security commitments to any of its neighbors in the post Cold War era.China should maintain a uniform strategy toward weaker neighbors in the South China Sea;and practice selective strategies in South Asia.

关 键 词：地区竞争 联盟关系 不对称外交战略 国内政治—意识形态理论 外部威胁理论 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]