公众外交政策倾向的心理根源——基于中美网民外交信念体系的比较  

The Psychological Origins of Foreign Policy Orientation:A Comparative Study Based on the Foreign Policy Belief Systems of Chinese and American Netizens

作　　者：马得勇[1,2] 陆铭 Ma Deyong;Lu Ming(the School of International Studies,Renmin University of China;the School of Government at Shenzhen University)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国际关系学院,北京100872 [2]深圳大学政府管理学院

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2023年第9期144-166,172,共24页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“中国国家形象国际传播的受众心理机制比较研究”(项目批准号:22AZZ003)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：公众头脑中是否存在某种信念体系并对其具体的外交政策倾向产生影响是学界关注的重点问题。基于心理学视角,作者构建了基础性观念—一般政治观—外交政策倾向的层次模型,以文化和制度等截然不同的中美两国的网民样本为分析对象,检验公众外交政策倾向是否受到层次性观念体系的约束。统计分析发现,中美两国公众的外交政策倾向虽然存在差异,但其外交政策倾向及心理根源具有相似性。中美两国公众在外交政策倾向上的差异源于两者在一般政治观上的差异,而一般政治观又植根于“群体服从”与“确定性偏好”的基础性心理动机。这表明以基础信念为内核的认知启发式作为大脑处理信息的思维捷径,在引导公众在政治参与和政治表达中发挥着基础性作用。公众具有系统的政治信念体系,其外交政策倾向受到由深层到表层、由抽象到具体的层次性观念结构的影响。意识形态和政治判断力一般被认为会对公众外交倾向产生重要影响,但其影响并不稳定。Whether a particular belief system exists in the public mind and it influences foreign policy orientations has long been a key concern of academia.This paper explores if such a belief system poses a constraint to the foreign policy orientations of the public through examination of netizens surveys from the culturally and institutionally different cases of China and the United States.Drawing from psychology,the authors constructed a model for a hierarchical belief system comprised of the layers “basic fundamental idea elements”,“general political views” and “foreign policy orientation”.Statistical analysis showed that although there were differences in the foreign policy preferences between the two publics,there existed similar structures in the respective foreign policy orientations and its psychological roots.Differences between hardline or moderate foreign policy orientation of the Chinese and American public stems from differences between the two general political values of state collectivism and international realism.These general political values are rooted in the fundamental psychological motives of group subordination and certainty preference.It is shown that the public has a systematic political belief system and its foreign policy orientation is influenced by the hierarchical values structure,in which the superficial idea-elements are constrained by the deep,and the concrete idea-elements are constrained by the abstract.While it is generally understood that ideology and political sophistication are influential factors in foreign policy orientation,this paper shows their influence is not stable.

关 键 词：外交政策倾向 信念体系 一般政治观 基础性观念 政治态度 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]