长期经济增长视角下的减税降费政策再探讨  

Re-examination of the Tax and Fee Reduction Policies:A Perspective of Long-Term Economic Growth

作　　者：张凯强 ZHANG Kai-qiang(National Academy of Economic Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100006,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,北京100006

出　　处：《兰州大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第5期27-37,共11页Journal of Lanzhou University（Social Sciences）

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“近几年减税降费政策效果评估研究”(20CJY058)。

摘　　要：2021-2023年的《政府工作报告》均指出阶段性减税降费措施和制度性政策安排相结合,因而,妥善处理短期减税降费政策与长期税制改革关系有利于保障经济发展的长期性、可持续性。从长期经济增长视角探讨减税降费政策的效应机制,借助于省级面板数据的GMM分析,发现税收政策的短期效应更为显著和突出,如果某省的税收收入占GDP比重降低1%,将会使得该地区在当期的实际GDP提高1.34%~1.51%。在税收政策的长期增长效应方面,税收政策对政策滞后年份的经济增长表现为“逆反效应”。据此,认为在长期经济增长视角下的减税降费政策主要包括:厘清政府性收费和非税收入,全面落实税收法定原则,强化税费征管的透明化、公开化;坚持减税降费政策与税制结构优化的统一,保障税费政策体系的长期性、可持续性;深化预算管理改革,弱化税收计划性和税收任务性,减少预算收支偏离,加强预算管理的监督和问责机制,保证财政收支资金的高效性。The government work reports from 2021 to 2023 emphasize the necessity of implementing phased tax and fee reduction policies in conjunction with institutional policies.Therefore,properly handling the relationship between short-term tax and fee reduction policies and long-term taxation reform is crucial for the sustainability of long-term economic development.The present paper explores the impact mechanism of these policies from the perspective of long-term economic growth.Through GMM analysis of provincial panel data,the findings reveal that the short-term effect of tax policies is more significant.A province’s current real GDP will increase by 1.34%~1.51%if the tax revenue in the GDP of the province decreases by 1%.In terms of the long-term growth effect of tax policies,it demonstrates a“reverse effect”on economic growth in lagging years.The paper therefore proposes that tax and fee reduction policies from the perspective of long-term economic growth should encompass the following aspects:enhancing the transparency and openness of tax collection by clarifying government charges and non-tax revenues while implementing statutory taxation,guaranteeing the sustainability of the taxation system by synergizing the reduction policies and the taxation structure optimization,and ensuring the efficiency of financial revenue and expenditure through measures of deepening the budgetary management reform like reducing tax planning and burdens,minimizing budget deviation,and strengthening supervision and accountability mechanisms.

关 键 词：减税降费 经济增长 政策评估 长期经济效应 税收政策 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]