仓储烟叶箱芯温度变化规律及预测预警研究——以安徽凤阳地区片烟养护为例  

Study on variation characteristics,forecasting and early warning of inner temperature of tobacco leaves carton during storage-taking tobacco maintenance in Fengyang of Anhui province as example

作　　者：张鑫[1] 王苏红 徐玮杰 李强[3] 杨凯[1] ZHANG Xin;WANG Suhong;XU Weijie;LI Qiang;YANG Kai(Technical Center,Shanghai Tobacco Group Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 201315,China;Huahuan International Tobacco Co.,Ltd.,Chuzhou 233121,China;Store&Transport Corp of Shanghai Tobacco Group Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200439,China)

机构地区：[1]上海烟草集团有限责任公司技术中心,上海201315 [2]华环国际烟草有限公司,安徽省滁州市233121 [3]上海烟草集团有限责任公司储运公司,上海200439

出　　处：《中国烟草学报》2023年第5期34-41,共8页Acta Tabacaria Sinica

基　　金：上海烟草集团有限责任公司科研项目“烟叶原料异地同质化养护技术研究”(K2016-1-018Z)。

摘　　要：【目的】探索箱芯温度在仓储烟叶质量风险预警中的应用方式,强化烟叶精细化、个性化养护能力。【方法】在安徽门台仓库持续44个月跟踪监测8个典型等级复烤片烟箱芯温度,分析箱芯温度随时间的变化规律及不同烟箱位置、不同烟叶等级间的差异特征,并建立箱芯温度预测模型。【结果】(1)烟叶箱芯温度呈现近似余弦函数的季节性变化规律,波峰、波谷分别出现在每年8月、2月。(2)正常情况下,升温过程箱芯温度低于仓间温度且升温速率一般不超过0.5℃/d,降温过程箱芯温度高于仓间温度但温差一般不超过4℃。(3)烟箱层高位置是造成升温过程烟箱间温度差异的主要原因。(4)基于时间序列分析的箱芯温度预测模型比多元线性回归模型的准确度、适用性更好,未来一周内预测结果最大绝对偏差仅为0.37℃。【结论】烟叶箱芯温度受仓储环境及空间位置影响显著,可依据统计规律和预测模型研制更为精准的风险预警机制。[Objective]This study aims to explore the application of carton temperature in the early warning of quality risk of stored tobacco leaves,and to achieve a more refined and personalized conservation.[Methods]The carton temperatures of 8 representative redried strips were tracked and monitored for 44 months in Mentai warehouse,Anhui.The dynamic characteristics of carton temperature as well as the differences resulted from carton positions and tobacco leaf grades were analyzed,and a carton temperature prediction model was constructed.[Results](1)Tobacco carton temperature showed a seasonal variation law of approximate cosine function,with peaks and troughs appearing in August and February of each year,respectively.(2)The carton temperature was lower than the warehouses during the warming period and the heating rate was generally not more than 0.5℃/d,while the carton temperature was higher than the warehouses during the cooling period but the temperature difference did not exceed 4℃.(3)The height of the carton was the main reason accounting for the temperature difference among cartons during the warming process.(4)The accuracy and applicability of the carton temperature prediction model established by time series analysis were better than those of the multiple linear regression model.The maximum absolute deviation of the prediction results in the coming week was only 0.37℃.[Conclusion]Tobacco carton temperature is significantly affected by storage environment and spatial location,and a more accurate risk early warning mechanism can be developed based on statistical laws and prediction models.

关 键 词：烟叶 仓储 箱芯温度 变化 预测 预警 

分 类 号：TS44[农业科学—烟草工业]