汇率波动、境外持有人民币资产规模与人民币结算比重  

Exchange Rate Fluctuations,Overseas Holdings of RMB Assets Scale and the Proportion of RMB Settlement

作　　者：马光明[1] Ma Guangming(School of International Trade and Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2023年第8期53-64,共12页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“人民币国际化应对中美战略竞争的有效性及推进策略研究”(22BGJ025)资助。

摘　　要：2015年“8·11”汇改以后,人民币汇率波动幅度的明显增加对跨境交易中的人民币结算比重产生复杂影响。本文基于交易双方规避风险的视角,在对同期人民币汇率波动幅度进行测度的基础上,利用2013年12月—2022年3月的时间序列数据与多变量E-G两步法模型进行实证研究发现:考察期内人民币兑美元名义汇率波动幅度增加对跨境贸易人民币结算比重有显著负向影响,但同期境外机构与个人持有人民币资产规模的提升能显著缓解汇率波动对人民币结算比重的负向冲击,起到正向调节作用。从资产结构来看,流动性与收益性相对较强的人民币股票与债券资产的汇率波动调节效应最为显著。进一步研究发现:境外持有人民币资产存量对汇率波动对人民币结算比重的影响存在规模门槛效应,境外持有人民币资产存量达到一定规模后,汇率波动对人民币结算比重的影响会由负转正,以上发现从侧面解释了已有文献关于汇率波动与人民币结算关系的差异性结论。未来应在维持人民币汇率弹性的同时大力拓展创新人民币流出渠道与投资渠道,提高境外机构与个人持有人民币资产的规模与多样性,为跨境交易中人民币结算比重进一步提升创造条件。The proportion of RMB settlement in cross-border trade had increased significantly since 2010,influenced by various factors.The significant increase in the fluctuation range of RMB exchange rate following the"8.11"exchange rate reform in 2015 might have a complex impact on the proportion of RMB settlement.From the perspective of risk aversion of both parties involved in the transaction and the measurement of the fluctuation range of RMB exchange rate,an empirical study was conducted using time series data from December 2013 to March 2022.Using the multivariable E-G two-step method,the paper found that the increase in the fluctuation range of RMB nominal exchange rate against US dollar had a significant negative impact on the RMB settlement proportion,meanwhile the increase in the scale of RMB assets held by overseas institutions and individuals played a positive regulatory role,which could significantly alleviate the negative impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the RMB settlement proportion.From the perspective of asset structure,RMB stocks and debt assets with relatively strong liquidity and profitability had a most significant effect on the adjustment of exchange rate fluctuation.Further research found that the impact of overseas held RMB asset stock on the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and RMB settlement proportion had a scale threshold effect.After the overseas held RMB asset stock reached a certain scale,the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on RMB settlement proportion would change from negative to positive.The findings mentioned above explained the divergences in the existing literature regarding the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and RMB settlement.In the future,while maintaining the flexibility of RMB exchange rate,the government should vigorously expand and innovate RMB outflow and investment channels,enhance the scale and quality of RMB assets held by overseas institutions and individuals,and create basic conditions for further increasing the proportion of RMB

关 键 词：人民币结算 汇率波动 境外持有人民币资产 人民币国际化 

分 类 号：F821[经济管理—财政学]