去工业化与企业出口国内增加值  

Deindustrialization and Enterprises’Domestic Value-added Rate

作　　者：王孝松 周钰丁[2] 朱丹 黄恒昌[2] WANG Xiaosong;ZHOU Yuding;ZHU Dan;HUANG Hengchang(Institute of China’s Economic Reform&Development,Renmin University of China;School of Economics,Renmin University of China;School of Applied Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学中国经济改革与发展研究院 [2]中国人民大学经济学院 [3]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2023年第10期71-92,共22页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：北京市习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心项目(23LLLJA020);国家社科基金重大项目(22&ZD086)的资助。

摘　　要：党的二十大报告提出“坚持把发展经济的着力点放在实体经济上”。作为中国经济增长的重要基石,以制造业为代表的工业化体系在过去较长时间内得到了长足发展与完善。然而,近年来,以支柱地位下降、要素禀赋萎缩为主要表现的去工业化特征日趋明显,在当前中国生产深度参与全球价值链的大背景下,去工业化对中国以出口获利能力、国际贸易地位为主要内涵的出口国内增加值率产生何种影响需要深入分析。本文研究结论表明:第一,整体而言,去工业化抑制了国内增加值率及其分解后的本地、外地增加值率的提升,但效应符号存在显著的时间维度差异;第二,就作用渠道而言,一方面,去工业化加剧了劳动力在部门间的资源错配,提高了生产要素成本,加重了企业的进口依赖,并对国内增加值率产生负向效应。另一方面,其在一定程度上带动了生产性服务业的扩张,进而提升了制造业企业的生产效率,并对国内增加值率具有正向效应;第三,丰裕的劳动力供给在去工业化进程中为制造业有效地补充了劳动力缺口,从而平抑了去工业化的不利影响;第四,基于代表性特征构造的测算指标表明,样本期内中国已呈现出“过早”去工业化特征,且其将对国内增加值率产生持续不利影响。The 20th National Congress report of the CPC emphasizes a development policy focused on“pursuing economic growth,we must continue to focus on the real economy”and“we will advance new industrialization and move faster to boost China’s strength in manufacturing,product quality.”Over the past four decades of reform and opening-up,China’s industrialization process has been remarkable and has swiftly transitioned from an agrarian society to an industrial one.However,since the 21st century,China’s industrial growth has significantly decelerated,and secondary industries have gradually yielded to tertiary industries as the mainstay of the economy and employment.This intensification of deindustrialization,particularly evident in the decline of manufacturing output and factor input,has resulted in the conspicuous feature of“declining before attaining strength,”prompting wide discussions and concerns.Moreover,since China’s accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001,the country has experienced over 20 years of continuous advancement in trade,becoming the world’s largest exporter and second-largest importer.Economic and trade cooperation has gradually increased China’s influence in international economic and trade discourse.However,due to some factors such as the limit of time,China’s foreign trade still exhibits the traits of being“large scale but not strong”and lacks core competitiveness in some sectors.The profitability of relevant industries in the global value chain still has room for improvement.Based on this,this study explores the impact mechanism of deindustrialization on the value-added rate of enterprises’export products through a theoretical model and calculates the corresponding indicators based on macro-and micro-level data to verify the related economic effects.Drawing on micro-level enterprise data from 2000 to 2013 and quantifying the deindustrialization level of each province’s industries,this study empirically examines the impact of deindustrialization on China’s e

关 键 词：去工业化 资源配置 国内增加值 国内价值链 

分 类 号：F424.0[经济管理—产业经济]