中国的低生育率及省际差异:基于生育指数的观察  

China's Low Ferility and Provincial Differences:Fertility Index-based Observation

作　　者：宋健[1] 胡波 姜春云 陈文琪 Song Jian;Hu Bo;Jiang Chunyun;Chen Wenqi(Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China;School of Sociology and Population Studies,Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学社会与人口学院,北京100872

出　　处：《人口研究》2023年第5期74-87,共14页Population Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“高质量发展视域下中国人口均衡发展的理论建构与多维测度研究”(20&ZD173)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：聚焦育龄人群“不想生”“不敢生”“不能生”现象,综合考虑生育意愿、生育条件、生育结构3个维度,根据低生育率相关理论,构建生育综合指数,观察分析当前中国低生育率现状并进行省际比较。研究发现,全国生育综合指数的平均值为0.492;生育条件指数值最低,反映了就业和收入因素及缺乏生育支持对生育率的制约;各省(区、市)育龄人群的结构特征较为一致,而生育意愿和生育条件的异质性较大;生育综合指数与总和生育率呈现正相关性,生育综合指数每提高0.1,总和生育率将会提高0.286。提升生育意愿将有助于提升总和生育率,但生育条件和生育结构尚未能有效发挥对生育率的促进作用,需要建立完善并长期实施生育支持政策,以重塑人群的生育观念、改变其生育行为。Focusing on the phenomenon that childbearing-age people"do not want to give birth,""dare not to give birth,"and"are unable to give birth,"we comprehensively consider the three dimensions of fertilityintention,conditions,and structure,build a fertility composite index according to the relevant theories of low ferility rate,observe and analyze the current situation of low fertility rate in China,and make inter-provincial comparisons.We find that the average national ferility composite index is 0.492.The ferility condition index is the lowest,reflecting the constraints on fertility caused by employment and income factors and lack of fertility support.The structural characteristics of the childbearing-age people are consistent in all provinces,while the fertility intention and ferility conditions are spatially heterogeneous.There is a positive association between fertility index and total fertility rate.With a o.1 unit increase in fertility index,total fertility rate increases by 0.286 units.Improving fertility intention can help effectively increase the total ferility rate;however,the changes in fertility conditions and ferility structure have not been able to effectively promote the total fertility rate.It is thus necessary to establish,improve,and implement long-term fertility support in order to reshape the fertility intention and change the behavior of the population.

关 键 词：生育综合指数 生育意愿 生育条件 生育结构 省际差异 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]