1990~2020年中国的婚育推迟:变化趋势与典型特征  

Postponement of Marriage and Childbearing in China during 1990-2020:Trends and Characteristics

作　　者：张现苓 盛亦男[2] Zhang Xianling;Sheng Yinan(School of Sociology and Psychology,Central University of Finance and Economics;School of Labor Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学社会与心理学院 [2]首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《人口研究》2023年第5期88-101,共14页Population Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“中国妇女队列生育水平及变动趋势研究”(18CRK011);教育部人文社科基地重大项目“中国的婚育转变、人口新形态与积极应对策略”(20231JY0051)的支持。

摘　　要：基于1990~2020年历次全国人口普查和人口抽样调查数据,对中国不同人群婚育推迟的变化趋势与典型特征进行分析。研究发现,中国平均初婚年龄不断提高,初婚推迟在城乡普遍发生但并不同步,2000~2010年城市初婚推迟快于农村,2010~2020年农村初婚推迟加快,导致城乡差距先拉大后缩小;受教育程度提高显著推迟人们的初婚时间,其中,高等教育的影响存在性别差异,其在推迟男女两性初婚时间的同时,降低了男性终身不婚的可能性;中国育龄妇女生育率曲线的峰值向右向下移动,城市育龄妇女生育峰值年龄推迟更快;育龄妇女平均生育年龄不断提高,2000~2010年生育推迟速度快于2010~2020年;各孩次平均生育年龄均不断推迟,其中,一孩和二孩生育推迟更明显;不同受教育程度的育龄妇女均表现出生育推迟趋势,且受教育程度越高,生育推迟越明显。Using the census and sampling survey data between 1990 and 2020,this study examines the postponement of marriage and childbearing in China.The results show a persistent increase in the mean age at first marriage in urban and rural China.However,the postponement of the first marriage started earlier in urban areas than rural areas during 2000-2010.The postponement of first marriage in rural areas accelerated during 2010-2020.This led to a widening and then narrowing trend of the urban-rural gap.Age at first marriage differs across educational attainment;women and men with higher education significantly postpone their first marriage.Men with higher education also show a lower likelihood of staying unmarried for life.The curve of age-specific fertility rate for women at childbearing age has shifed downwards to the right,and the peak childbearing age of urban women has shifted more than that of rural women.The mean age at childbearing has been increasing,with a more rapid speed in 2000-2010 and then a slower one in 2010-2020.The mean age at childbearing of each parity has been postponed,especially for the first and second births.Women with different educational levels all postpone childbearing,and those with higher education levels show larger postponement.

关 键 词：初婚推迟 生育推迟 平均生育年龄 孩次 受教育程度 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学] D669.1[政治法律—政治学]