中国产业结构变迁缩小了地区经济差距吗  

Has China’s Industrial Structure Change Narrowed the Regional Economic Gap?

作　　者：刘金全[1] 薛蔚雯 LIU Jin-quan;XUE Wei-wen(Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学商学与管理学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《当代财经》2023年第10期18-29,共12页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“经济周期形态变异、经济周期成分分解与经济政策周期相依性的动态机制研究”(72073040)。

摘　　要：区域经济协调发展是我国建设现代化经济体系过程中面临的重要现实问题,也是实现共同富裕的必由之路。21世纪以来,我国经济增长收敛呈现以2013年为节点先快后慢的变化趋势。基于包含产业结构变迁的三部门Mankiw-Romer-Weil扩展收敛模型的实证研究表明,产业结构变迁整体上能够促进省际经济收敛,但存在产业异质性;劳动力流入工业在短期内对收敛具有显著正向作用,而流入服务业难以促进收敛。进一步研究表明,1998—2013年,相较东部地区以农业劳动力流入服务业为主的产业结构变迁,中西部地区以农业劳动力流入工业为主的产业结构变迁对经济增长的推动作用更强,促进了中西部地区与东部地区的经济差距缩小,从而加快我国整体经济收敛;而2013年后,中西部地区的产业结构变迁方向与东部地区逐渐同步,均以农业劳动力流入服务业为主,省际经济收敛速度放缓。The coordinated development of regional economy is an important practical problem that China is faced with in the process of building a modern economic system,and it is also the only way to achieve common prosperity.Since the 21st century,the economic growth of China has shown a converging trend of first fast then slow around the node of the year of 2013.Based on the three-sector Mankiw-Romer-Weil extended convergence model including the industrial structure changes,this paper conducts an empirical study.The findings show that industrial structure changes can promote inter-provincial economic convergence as a whole,but there is industrial heterogeneity.The labor inflow into industry has a significant positive effect on the convergence in the short term,while the inflow into the service industry is difficult to promote convergence.Further research shows that from 1998 to 2013,compared with the industrial structure change in the eastern region,which is dominated by the inflow of agricultural labor into the service industry,the industrial structure change in the central and western regions,which is dominated by the inflow of agricultural labor into the industry,has a stronger role in promoting economic growth,thereby narrowing the economic gap between the central and western regions and the eastern regions,and accelerating China’s overall economic convergence;however,after 2013,the industrial structure of the central and western regions has gradually synchronized with the eastern region,both of which are dominated by the inflow of agricultural labor into the service industry,and the inter-provincial economic convergence rate is slowing down.

关 键 词：地区经济差距 经济增长收敛 产业结构 劳动生产率 

分 类 号：F129.9[经济管理—世界经济]