因果关系数理形式化描述的可行性研究--基于霍尔的因果涌现理论  

A Feasibility Study of the Mathematical Formal Description of Causal Relationships:AStudy Based on Hall's Causal Emergence Theory

作　　者：张鑫[1] HANG Xin(School of Philosophy and Social Development,Shandong University,Jinan,Shandong,250100)

机构地区：[1]山东大学哲学与社会发展学院,山东济南250100

出　　处：《自然辩证法通讯》2023年第10期29-37,共9页Journal of Dialectics of Nature

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“社会文化视域下的概念与推理研究”(项目编号:22JJD720021);山东大学人文社会科学研究重大项目“分析哲学视域下的元哲学重大前沿问题研究”(项目编号:11090082235324)。

摘　　要：人工智能技术的发展,推动了因果理论向数理形式化方向发展。当前就因果涌现理论能否实现因果关系的数理形式化表达,学术界产生了分歧:拥护派认为该理论具备数理形式化可能,怀疑派认为该理论仅仅属于主观干预主义的认识论,不具备数理形式化可能。主观干预主义与循环主义的指责并没有看到该理论客观测量因果关系的底层逻辑,以及微观与宏观因果尺度转化的数理基础。不过,该理论缺乏整体的反事实模型,尚未解决强涌现复杂性与数学形式简约性的矛盾,并且理论本身的精确化与稳健性较弱不利于应用与推广,该理论的当前形态尚不完备,有待未来进一步发展。The development of artificial intelligence technology has promoted the development of causal theory to the direction of mathematical formalization.At present,there is a disagreement on whether causal emergence theory can realize the mathematical formal expression of causality:the supporters believe that the theory has the possibility of mathematical formalization,while the skeptics believe that the theory belongs only to the epistemology of subjective interventionism and does not possibly have the mathematical form.Moreover,the criticisms of subjective interventionism and circularism fail to see the underlying logic of the theory's objective measurement of causal relationships and the mathematical basis for the transformation of micro-causal scale and macro-causal scale.However,the theory lacks an overall counterfactual model,and has not yet resolved the contradiction between the complexity of strong emergence and the simplicity of mathematical forms,and the weak accuracy and robustness of the theory itself are not conducive to its application and generalization.The current form of the theory is not complete,and it needs to be further developed in the future.

关 键 词：因果涌现理论 因果关系 数理形式化 

分 类 号：N02[自然科学总论—科学技术哲学] O141[理学—数学]