长三角城市生活用水量的时空变化与驱动效应研究  

Study on the spatial and temporal changes and driving effects of urban domestic water consumption in the Yangtze River Delta

作　　者：孙冬营[1] 王炎霄 丁绪辉 刘钢 SUN Dongying;WANG Yanxiao;DING Xuhui;LIU Gang(School of management,Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang212013,Jiangsu,China;School of Finance and Economics,Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang212013,Jiangsu,China;College of Management and Economics,Tianjin University,Tianjin300072,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏大学管理学院,江苏镇江212013 [2]江苏大学财经学院,江苏镇江212013 [3]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2023年第9期61-73,共13页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(20BGL191);国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0404600);国家自然科学基金项目(71704068);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(21YJCZH139,21YJC790021);江苏省社会科学基金(21GLB007);江苏省高校哲学社会科学重点基地“绿色发展与环境治理研究中心资助”。

摘　　要：【目的】随着长三角一体化发展的持续深入,区域用水压力凸显,探明长三角城市生活用水量的时空变化特征与驱动效应,为控制长三角城市生活用水量和建设节水型社会等工作提供科学依据。【方法】通过空间转移系数将城市分为3类,并结合数据可视化分析生活用水量的时空变化特征,利用LMDI方法探究城市生活用水量变化的驱动效应。【结果】生活用水量转出区包含两个城市;生活用水量稳定区包含6个城市;生活用水量转入区包含33个城市;各省、各地区、各类生活用水的分解结果中,经济效应和用水强度效应的数值分别是所有效应中的最大值和最小值;公共服务用水量各效应的贡献率绝对值都大于居民家庭用水量的各效应的贡献率绝对值。【结论】长三角城市生活用水量在空间上总体呈现“东高西低”的特征,在时间上呈现不断增长的特征;经济效应和用水强度效应分别是促进和抑制生活用水量增长的主导因素;人口分布的变化会带来生活用水量的变化;公共服务用水量对各效应变化的反应更加敏感。[Objective]With the continuous deepening of the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta,the pressure on regional water use has become prominent.The spatiotemporal change characteristics and driving effects of urban domestic water consumption in the Yangtze River Delta need to be explored to provide scientific basis for controlling urban domestic water consumption and building a water-saving society.[Methods]Cities were divided into three categories through spatial transfer co-efficients,and the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of domestic water consumption were analyzed using data visualization.The LMDI method was used to explore the driving effects of urban domestic water consumption changes.[Results]The domestic water transfer out area includes two cities.The stable domestic water consumption area includes 6 cities.The domestic water transfer area includes 33 cities.In the decomposition result of domestic water in various provinces,regions,and types,the values of economic effect and water intensity effect are the maximum and minimum values of all effects respectively.The absolute value of the contribution rate of each effect of public service water consumption is greater than the absolute value of the contribution rate of each effect of household water consumption.[Conclusion]The urban domestic water consumption in the Yangtze River Delta generally presents the characteristics of“high in the east and low in the west”in space,and presents the characteristics of con-tinuous growth in time.Economic effect and water intensity effect are the leading factors to promote and suppress the growth of domestic water consumption respectively.Changes in population distribution will lead to changes in domestic water consumption.Public service water consumption is more sensitive to changes in various effects.

关 键 词：长三角城市 生活用水量 LMDI 空间转移系数 水资源 人口分布 节水型社会 时空变化 

分 类 号：TU991.31[建筑科学—市政工程]