京津冀地区经济韧性与产业结构演变的耦合关联  

Coupling correlation between economic resilience and industrial structure evolution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

作　　者：张学波 付文硕 马海涛[3] ZHANG Xuebo;FU Wenshuo;MA Haitao(School of Geography and Tourism,Qufu Normal University,Rizhao 276826,Shandong,China;Institute of Yellow River Ecology,Qufu Normal University,Qufu 273165,Shandong,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]曲阜师范大学地理与旅游学院,日照276826 [2]曲阜师范大学黄河生态研究院,曲阜273165 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《地理学报》2023年第10期2392-2411,共20页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42071150);山东省泰山学者青年专家计划(tsqn202306183)。

摘　　要：区域经济韧性与其产业结构状况密切相关,二者的演变是否存在时空关联性以及如何关联需要进一步探究。基于企业和产业的微、中观视角,利用京津冀地区多年份经济增长和企业状态数据,检验了地区经济韧性与产业结构演变的关联性,筛选了影响地区经济韧性的主要产业,剖析了经济韧性与产业结构演变的耦合关联机理。结果表明:①京津冀地区经济高速增长阶段与缓慢增长阶段交替出现,经济韧性呈现波动增强的态势;北京、天津和石家庄等城市中心区表现出较高的经济韧性,空间上呈现中心—外围结构。②地区经济韧性与产业结构演变空间关联显著,在较为发达的北京、天津等地区高经济韧性—高产业结构多样化关联集聚较为明显;时间序列上,二者表现出显著的双向因果关系和演变的一致性。③京津冀地区产业结构逐步改善,相比产业结构效应,区域竞争力效应对经济韧性的贡献较大;第一产业、消费性服务业和社会性服务业对地区经济抵抗力韧性的提升发挥了关键作用;消费性服务业和社会性服务业的发展有利于地区经济恢复力韧性的提升。④地区产业结构的演替驱动了发展路径的演化以及经济韧性的分异;京津冀地区经济韧性与产业结构演变的时空耦合关联以时间尺度为主,空间上并未导致地区空间结构的根本性重构,中心—外围结构仍较为显著。Regional economic resilience is closely related to the state of the regional industrial structure.During the process of the region undergoing and recovering from external shocks,whether and how the spatio-temporal correlation between economic resilience and the evolution of the established industrial structure should be further explored.The micro and mesoscopic views of enterprises and industries,multi-year economic growth data,and enterprise status in the counties of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were employed to measure regional economic resilience at the county level and divide its economic development stages.In addition,a spatio-temporal correlation between regional economic resilience and industrial structure was appropriately tested,and the main industries affecting regional economic resilience were distinguished.Finally,the coupling mechanism of regional economic resilience and industrial structure evolution was analyzed.The major findings are as follows:(1)The periods of rapid and slow economic growth occur alternately in the study region,and the economic resilience shows a fluctuating growth trend.Meanwhile,central urban areas such as Beijing,Tianjin,and Shijiazhuang exhibited high economic resilience,and a typical centerperiphery structure gradually took shape.(2)There was a significant spatial correlation between regional economic resilience and industrial structure.In economically developed regions,such as Beijing and Tianjin,the agglomeration of high economic resilience and high industrial structure was evident.There was a two-way causal correlation and consistency in time-series changes.(3)The industrial structure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region had gradually improved.Compared to the effect of industrial structure,the effect of competitiveness contributed more to economic resilience.Primary industries as well as those pertinent to consumer services and social services have played a pivotal role in improving regional resisting economic resilience.Besides,the development of consumer services an

关 键 词：区域经济韧性 偏离—份额分析 产业结构效应 区域竞争力效应 耦合关联 京津冀 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]