“一带一路”贸易网络演化与贸易门户国家识别  

The trade network evolution and identification of gateway countries in the Belt and Road region

作　　者：陈伟[1,2] 赵晞泉 刘卫东 叶尔肯·吾扎提[1,2] CHEN Wei;ZHAO Xiquan;LIU Weidong;WUZHATI Yeerken(Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049

出　　处：《地理学报》2023年第10期2465-2483,共19页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK1007);国家自然科学基金项目(41901154,42130508,42230406)。

摘　　要：全面认识“一带一路”贸易网络连通性、科学识别“一带一路”贸易合作的关键节点,对于推进“一带一路”高质量发展具有重要意义。从网络连通性视角出发,本文提出了“门户国家”的概念,综合集成Top网络、组团识别、门户系数等前沿网络分析方法,考察“一带一路”贸易网络时空格局演化,剖析贸易组团结构性变迁过程,识别贸易门户国家及其功能作用,以期为中国开展对外经贸合作、推进“一带一路”建设提供科学决策依据。研究发现:①“一带一路”沿线各国家(地区)贸易规模持续增长,逐步形成了联系日益紧密、结构日趋复杂、层级特征明显的贸易网络结构。②“一带一路”主干网络核心节点突出,极化效应显著,由“相对均衡”向“一极独大”态势演进,中国已成为贸易网络中的主导性力量。③在全球化和区域化交互作用的背景下,“一带一路”贸易网络形成了4~5个贸易组团,组团结构呈现出地理邻近性和动态演化性。④中国、俄罗斯、印度、土耳其、新加坡、马来西亚、波兰、匈牙利、罗马尼亚、埃及、以色列和黎巴嫩等贸易大国或占据特殊地理位置的枢纽国家成为“一带一路”沿线地区重要的门户国家。作为凝聚和支撑“一带一路”贸易体系的功能性节点和战略性枢纽,门户国家在提升贸易网络连通性方面发挥着至关重要的作用,也应成为中国与沿线地区开展经贸合作的优先战略选择。A comprehensive understanding of the connectivity of the Belt and Road trade network and the scientific identification of critical nodes in the Belt and Road trade cooperation are crucial for China to effectively promote the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI).From the perspective of network connectivity,this paper proposes the concept of"gateway country",and integrates the frontier methods of network analysis,including Top network,community detection,and gateway coefficient,to examine the evolution of the spatiotemporal patterns of the Belt and Road trade network,analyses the structural changes of trade blocs and identifies trade gateway countries and their functional roles,intending to develop foreign trade and economic cooperation and promote the Belt and Road construction in China.The results show that:(1)The trade volumes of the BRI countries have continued to grow,gradually forming trade network patterns with increasingly close ties,complex structures and significant hierarchical features.(2)The core nodes of the BRI backbone network are prominent,and the polarisation effect is significant,evolving from"relative equilibrium"to"superpower dominant",with China becoming the leading force in the whole trade network.(3)Against the globalisation and regionalisation interaction background,the BRI trade network has formed four to five communities.The community structures exhibit geographical proximity and instability in the number of communities,their scale and membership composition in different years.(4)China,Russia,India,Turkiye,Singapore,Malaysia,Poland,Hungary,Romania,Egypt,Israel,and Lebanon have become gateway countries along the Belt and Road,either as major trading countries or as hub countries with unique geographical locations.As functional nodes and strategic hubs that consolidate and maintain the Belt and Road trading system,the gateway countries play crucial roles in promoting the trade network connectivity and should be a priority strategic choice for China's economic and tr

关 键 词：贸易网络 贸易组团 门户国家 贸易地理 一带一路 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济] F752.7F742