中国居民2002-2021年急性心肌梗死死亡趋势年龄-时期-队列模型分析  

Acute myocardial infarction mortality among Chinese residents from 2002 to 2021:an age-period-cohort model analysis

作　　者：董丹 孙艳秋[1] 燕燕[1] Dan DONG;Yan-Qiu SUN;Yan YAN(College of Information Engineering,Liaoning University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Shenyang 100847,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁中医药大学信息工程学院,沈阳100847

出　　处：《数理医药学杂志》2023年第10期721-726,共6页Journal of Mathematical Medicine

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅科学研究重点攻关项目(L202059);辽宁中医药大学人文社科项目(2019-lnzy001、2019-lnzy002)。

摘　　要：目的探讨中国居民急性心肌梗死死亡率随年龄、时期、出生队列的变化趋势,为制定急性心肌梗死预防策略提供参考。方法提取《中国卫生健康统计年鉴》中2002至2021年中国居民急性心肌梗死死亡率数据,采用年龄-时期-队列模型网络工具进行统计分析,计算急性心肌梗死死亡率的年龄效应、时期效应和出生队列效应。结果中国居民2002至2021年急性心肌梗死死亡率呈上升趋势,城市和乡村的急性心肌梗死死亡率分别由2002年的16.46/10万(标准化率26.83/10万)和12.00/10万(标准化率27.48/10万)上升至2021年的63.25/10万(标准化率43.39/10万)和78.62/10万(标准化率81.85/10万)。年龄-时期-队列模型结果显示,城市居民急性心肌梗死死亡率年净漂移值为3.023%[95%CI(2.591%,3.456%)],乡村居民为7.174%[95%CI(6.475%,7.878%)]。不同人群急性心肌梗死死亡率的年龄效应有较大差异,在同一出生队列下随年龄的增长,乡村居民急性心肌梗死死亡率变化趋势显著高于城市居民。结论中国居民2002至2021年急性心肌梗死死亡率总体呈先上升后趋于平稳且稳中有降的变化趋势,70岁以上老年人群体,尤其是乡村老年人是重点人群,应予以重点防控。Objective To analyze the trends of acute myocardial infarction(AMI)mortality and influences of age,period and birth cohort on the AMI mortality among Chinese population,and to provide references for developing AMI prevention and control strategies.Methods The data of AMI mortality from 2002 to 2021 in China were collected from the China Health Statistics Yearbook.The age-period-cohort model web tool was used to calculate the effects of age,period and birth cohort of AMI mortality.Results The AMI mortality in China showed an upward trends from 2002 to 2021.The AMI mortality for urban and rural residents increased from 16.46/100000(standardized rate of 26.83/100000)and 12.00/100000(standardized rate of 27.48/100000)in 2002 to 63.25/100000(standardized rate of 43.39/100000)and 78.62/100000(standardized rate of 81.85/100000)in 2021,respectively.The results of age-period-cohort model showed that the net drift values of AMI mortality were 3.023%[95%CI(2.591%,3.456%)]for urban residents and 7.174%[95%CI(6.475%,7.878%)]for rural residents.There were significant differences in the age effect of AMI mortality among different populations,and the trend of AMI mortality among rural residents was significantly higher than that among urban residents with age in the same birth cohort.Conclusion From 2002 to 2021,the mortality of AMI among Chinese residents showed a trend of first increasing,then stabilizing and decreasing.The elderly population aged 70 and above,especially those in rural areas,are dangerous populations,which should be concerned about in AMI prevention.

关 键 词：急性心肌梗死 死亡 趋势 年龄-时期-队列模型 

分 类 号：R542.22[医药卫生—心血管疾病]