我国高铁与民航融合发展的减排潜力研究  

Emission Reduction Potential of the Integration Development of High-speed Railway and Civil Aviation

作　　者：王雪成 王婉佼 WANG Xuecheng;WANG Wanjiao(Transportation Development Research Center,China Academy of Transportation Science,Beijing 100029,China;Transportation Research Center,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China)

机构地区：[1]交通运输部科学研究院交通发展研究中心,北京100029 [2]东北林业大学交通研究中心,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《河南科学》2023年第10期1433-1439,共7页Henan Science

摘　　要：基于对我国高铁和民航现有运输格局以及碳排放量的分析研究,采用灰色预测模型构建高铁和民航融合发展的减排潜力模型,分析未来城际客运需求及高铁和民航融合发展的减排潜力.预测分析结果表明:①高铁和民航融合发展的减排效果逐年增加,将从2025年的800万t逐步增长至2035年的2100万t,2060年的3500万t.②高铁作为中短距离及连接城市群的主要运输方式,未来脱碳路径主要为调整客运结构、低碳技术应用、智能化和信息化技术提高运输效率.③民航运输作为长距离出行及人口密度较小地区间的主要出行方式,其脱碳路径主要包括不断提升燃油效率和加快可持续燃料的应用.Based on the analysis and research of the existing transport patterns and carbon emissions of China’s high-speed railway and civil aviation,a gray prediction model is used to construct an emission reduction potential model for the integrated development of high-speed railway and civil aviation,and to analyze the future demand for intercity passenger transport and the emission reduction potential of the integrated development of high-speed railway and civil aviation.The results show that:①The emission reduction effect of the integrated development of high-speed railway and civil aviation would increase year by year,from 8 million tons in 2025 to 21 million tons in 2035 and 35 million tons in 2060 gradually.②As a major mode of transportation for short and medium distances and connecting urban agglomerations,the future paths of decarbonization of high-speed railway mainly involve adjusting the structure of passenger transportation,application of low-carbon technology and intelligent and information technology to improve the efficiency of railroad transportation.③Civil aviation transport as the main mode of travel over long distances and between less densely populated areas,its decarbonization pathways mainly consist of continuously improving the fuel efficiency of airlines and accelerating the application of sustainable aviation fuels.

关 键 词：高铁 民航 融合发展 城际客运 减排潜力 脱碳路径 

分 类 号：U125[交通运输工程]