交通运输能力与进口——以产业结构为中介变量的分析  

Transportation Capacity and Imports——Analysis Using Industrial Structure as a Mediator Variable

作　　者：朱立 蔡巍 ZHU Li;CAI Wei(Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming 650221,China)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学经济研究院,云南昆明650221

出　　处：《铁道经济研究》2023年第5期42-49,共8页Railway Economics Research

基　　金：云南财经大学研究生创新基金项目“云南省面向印度洋大通道建设对云南外贸的影响研究”(2023YUFEYC111)。

摘　　要：基于2001—2020年中国31省份面板数据,以面板熵值法评价出的交通运输能力作为自变量,运用中介效应模型就交通运输能力对我国各省份进口的影响进行分析。研究表明,交通运输能力对我国各省份的进口水平具有促进作用,其中产业结构作为中介变量起到了显著的作用。交通运输能力对我国进口的影响具有地区和地理环境的异质性,其中对中部地区和内陆省份的进口的促进效果更加显著,交通运输能力的提升有助于改善内陆中部“陆锁省”的状况,促进进口。因此,应着重提升中部和内陆省份的“互联互通”建设力度和交通的运载强度,提高交通运输能力,促进对外贸易。Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2001 to 2020,we take the transportation capacity evaluated by the panel entropy method as an independent variable,and use the mediation effect model to analyze the impact of transportation capacity on the import of each province in China.The results have shown that transportation capacity has a facilitating effect on the import level of various provinces in China,in which industrial structure plays a significant role as a mediating variable.The impact of transportation capacity on China's imports is characterized by regional and geographical heterogeneity,with a more significant promotion effect on imports from the central region and inland provinces.The improvement of transportation capacity could help to improve the situation of inland central"land-locked provinces"and promote imports.Therefore,it is necessary to focus on enhancing the construction of"connectivity"and transportation intensity in central and inland provinces and to improve transportation capacity and foreign trade.

关 键 词：中介效应 交通运输能力 进口 产业结构 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济] F752.6F512