福建省雨季人工增雨效果统计分析  

Statistical Analysis of Artificial Precipitation Effect in Fujian Province During Rainy Season

作　　者：汪智海 刘群 李丹[2] Wang Zhihai;Liu Qun;Li Dan(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Minnan Normal University,Zhangzhou 363000,China;Fujian Institute of Meteorological Science,Fuzhou 350001,China)

机构地区：[1]闽南师范大学数学与统计学院,福建漳州363000 [2]福建省气象科学研究所,福州350001

出　　处：《黑龙江科学》2023年第20期58-60,64,共4页Heilongjiang Science

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金(2021J01982);国家重点研发计划(2019YFC1510303);数字福建气象大数据研究所开放课题(202010705)。

摘　　要：针对全球变暖导致各地干旱事件频发问题,以福建省为研究区域,对降雨时空分布特征进行了分析,了解降雨规律,运用聚类中的SOM自适应方法对福建省人工增雨区域进行划分,确定人工增雨作业的对比区与影响区。采用多元线性回归模型模拟自然降雨量,评估人工增雨作业效果。结果表明,福建省雨季平均每个站点增雨效果为5 mm左右,6月份与7月份的人工增雨作业能产生较高的绝对增雨量,说明人工增雨能够明显提高降雨量。Aiming at the problem of frequent drought events caused by global warming,the study analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of rainfall in Fujian Province as the research area,knows the rainfall rule,uses SOM adaptive method in clustering to divide the artificial rainfall enhancement areas in Fujian Province,and determines the comparison and influence areas of artificial rainfall enhancement operations.Then the study conducts multiple linear regression model to simulate the natural rainfall and evaluate the effect of artificial rainfall enhancement.The results show that the average rainfall enhancement effect of each station is about 5 mm,and the artificial rainfall enhancement operations in June and July can produce higher absolute rainfall increase,indicating that artificial rain enhancement can significantly increase rainfall.

关 键 词：降雨特征 SOM聚类方法 多元线性回归 人工增雨效果检验 

分 类 号：O213[理学—概率论与数理统计]