基于AHP的航空运行安全风险评估方法  

Research on Aviation Operation Safety Risk Assessment Method Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

作　　者：李永利 LI Yongli(School of Management and Engineering,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学管理工程学院,北京100070

出　　处：《安全》2023年第10期30-33,共4页Safety & Security

摘　　要：为优化民航运行安全风险评估方法,提出基于层次分析法的航空运行安全风险评估方法。该方法从人—机—环—管4个方面选择安全风险评估指标,建立评估指标体系,利用层次分析法确定指标标度值,利用评估函数对风险进行量化评估,以确定航空运行安全的风险等级,并以某航空公司2020年一季度数据进行应用计算。同时,与2种传统的航空运行安全风险评估方法进行对比。结果显示:该方法可用于航空安全风险评估;该方法一致性系数在0.9以上、平均评估时间小于1s,均优于传统方法。在航空运行安全风险评估方面具有良好的应用前景。In order to optimize the risk assessment methods for the aviation operation safety,a risk assessment method for the aviation operation safety was proposed based on Analytic Hierarchy Process.In this method,the assessment indicators of the safety risk were selected from four aspects:human,machine,environment and management,and the assessment index was established.The indicator scale value was determined using Analytic Hierarchy Process.Operation risks were assessed quantitatively using the assessment function,and the risk level of the aviation operation safety was determined.The example application was carried out using the data of the first quarter of 2020 in an airline company.At the same time,this method was compared with two kinds of the traditional assessment methods for the aviation operation safety.The results indicate that this method is suitable for the risk assessment of the aviation safety,and that the consistency coefficient of this method is above 0.9 and the average evaluation time is less than 1 second,which are superior to the tradition⁃al methods.This method has the good application prospect in the risk assessment of the aviation operation safety.

关 键 词：层次分析法(AHP) 风险评估 标度值 评估函数 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]