中印崛起的“邻国困境”与地区秩序的重塑  

The Rise of China and India,the Neighboring Country Dilemma and the Reshaping of the Regional Order

作　　者：聂姣 Nie Jiao

机构地区：[1]云南大学民族学与社会学学院

出　　处：《南亚研究》2023年第3期1-27,156,157,共29页South Asian Studies

基　　金：研究阐释党的十九届六中全会精神国家社科基金重点项目“‘五个家园’维度下构建中国—东盟命运共同体研究”(项目批准号:22AZD106)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：作为在同一时代、同一地区、同时崛起的最大发展中国家,中印在共同崛起的过程中都需要足够的外部空间、外部资源等进行支撑,在周边地区有意或无意地因“争夺小国的支持”而陷入共同崛起的“邻国困境”。战略空间相互重叠、崛起国的地位认知、“第三国因素”的影响往往是大国崛起陷入“邻国困境”的主要原因。在中印综合国力上升和越发重视周边外交的背景下,空间碰撞、地位竞争、域外推动已经成为中印“邻国困境”越发突出的三大原因。中印存在“邻国困境”意味着双边关系在结构上被锁定在另一种关系中,这种关系有两种可能,一种是与周边国家的关系,另一种是与域外大国的关系。具体表现为近年来中—印—邻国的“小三角”关系和中—印—域外大国的“大三角”关系之间联锁的趋势越来越深,“三角”关系演变为“双三角”关系。中印共同崛起的“邻国困境”本质上是这两个崛起国对地区秩序主导权的争夺,而破除困境的根本在于地区秩序的重塑,构建“双三角”地区秩序可成为突破大国崛起过程中“邻国困境”的新思路。China and India are the two largest developing countries in the world and are each rising respectively as great powers at the same time in the same region.Each country will require sufficient external space and resources to support its rise,and whether intentionally or not,both will become entangled in the"neighboring country dilemma"as they compete for the support of small countries in the region.The"neighboring country dilemma"in turn is primarily caused by rising states identifying overlapping strategic spaces vis-à-vis their development,by differing perceptions of their rising status,and by the influence of"third party factors."As the comprehensive national strength of both China and India continues to increase,and as the two countries place more emphasis on neighboring country diplomacy,competition over developmental space,status and external factors will exacerbate the"neighboring country dilemma"between them.For China and India,the existence of a"neighboring country dilemma"implies that the bilateral relationship between them has become structurally intertwined with another form of relationship.There are two possibilities in this regard:first is that the bilateral relationship has become linked to relations with neighboring countries;second is that it has become linked to that of relations with a great power from outside the region.In recent years,there is increasingly a trend towards the emergence of what we refer to as"small triangles"—elations between China,India and neighboring countries and"large triangles"or relations between China,India and extraregional great powers.In addition,deeper linkages between these two sets of triangles,or what we might call"double triangle"relations are beginning to emerge.Fundamentally,the neighboring country dilemma between a rising China and a rising India is about their competition for dominance in the regional order.The solution to the"neighboring country dilemma"lies in prospects for the reshaping of the regional order.In this regard,the concept of the"double tri

关 键 词：中印关系 共同崛起 “邻国困境” 地区秩序 周边外交 

分 类 号：D822.335.1[政治法律—政治学]