危险的游戏:乌克兰危机中的俄美核博弈  

Dangerous Guessing Game:Nuclear Game between Russia and US in Ukraine Crisis

作　　者：赵华胜[1] Zhao Huasheng

机构地区：[1]复旦大学国际问题研究院

出　　处：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2023年第5期1-16,162,共17页Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies

摘　　要：从俄乌冲突爆发,俄美之间即展开了一场几乎是公开的核博弈。两国博弈的形式和目标不同。俄罗斯运用核威慑,以使美国和北约不敢介入俄乌冲突。而美国在断定不至于使俄罗斯动用核武器的前提下,一步一步地突破俄罗斯的“红线”,向乌克兰提供越来越多的军事支持。双方针锋相对,形成相互刺激的螺旋上升,核战争的风险越来越大。在这种背景下,俄罗斯学术界提出了一种惊人的观点,认为西方正在把俄罗斯推向与北约的第三次世界大战,这将不可避免地导致核战争;为避免更大的灾难及拯救人类,俄罗斯必须制止西方,甚至不惜准备使用核武器,使美国或是投降,或是进行核大战。这一观点在俄罗斯学术界激起强烈反响,舆论主流对此并不认同。美俄核博弈发生的原因不难看到,要找到走出困境的路径却极为困难。停火是最简单和有效的办法,但在当前的战场形势下,停火难以迅速实现,只能期望美俄能保持最低限度的理性和克制,为找到通向和平的出路留出时间和空间。Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,there has been an almost open nuclear game between Russia and the United States.The forms and objectives of the game between two countries'games are different.Russia used nuclear deterrence to keep the United States and NATO from intervening in the conflict with Ukraine.However,the United States on the assumption that it will not make Russia use nuclear weapons,is stepping by stepping to break through the Russian“red line”,to provide more and more military support to Ukraine.The two sides are locked in a spiral of mutual irritation,and the risk of nuclear war is growing.In this context,Russian academics have advanced the alarming idea that the West is pushing Russia toward a third world war with NATO,which will inevitably lead to nuclear war.In order to avoid an even greater catastrophe and to save humanity,Russia must stop the West.To this end,it is prepared to use nuclear weapons to make the United States either surrender or engage in a nuclear war.It provoked strong reactions in Russian academia,and the mainstream of public opinion does not agree with it.It is easy to see why the U.S.-Russian nuclear game is taking place,while it is extremely difficult to find a way out.A ceasefire is the simplest and most effective way,but it is difficult to realize a ceasefire quickly in the current situation on the battlefield.We can only hope that the United States and Russia can maintain a minimum of rationality and restraint,and leave time and space for finding a way out to peace.

关 键 词：俄乌冲突 核战争 核威慑 俄美关系 俄美战略博弈 

分 类 号：D815.2[政治法律—国际关系]