基于CA-Markov模型的大凌河流域土地利用变化与模拟预测研究  

LAND USE CHANGES AND SIMULATION PREDICTION IN DALING RIVER BASIN BASED ON CA-MARKOV MODEL

作　　者：江山[1] 石旭飞[1] 郭常来[1] 冯雨林[1] 孙秀波 孙家全 倪金 JIANG Shan;SHI Xu-fei;GUO Chang-lai;FENG Yu-lin;SUN Xiu-bo;SUN Jia-quan;NI Jin(Shenyang Center of China Geological Survey,Shenyang 110034,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质调查局沈阳地质调查中心,辽宁沈阳110034

出　　处：《地质与资源》2023年第5期624-632,共9页Geology and Resources

基　　金：中国地质调查局项目“东北振兴区资源环境承载能力监测”(DD20221730);“东北地区自然资源综合调查”(DD20211383).

摘　　要：基于大凌河流域2000、2010和2020年3期土地利用数据,采用土地利用动态度、土地利用程度、土地利用转移矩阵等方法分析过去20年来研究区土地利用变化规律,并基于元胞自动机-马尔可夫(CA-Markov)模型模拟预测研究区2030年土地利用格局.结果表明:2000—2020年大凌河流域土地利用以耕地和草地为主,二者占比超过80%.近20年间,研究区内林地、草地和建设用地面积不断增加,耕地面积持续减少,且减少的速度在加快,前后两个10年分别减少了132.85和1360.13 km^(2).2000—2020年间,土地综合利用动态度由43.53%降低为10.36%,处于降低趋势.建设用地动态度由0.11%增加至4.99%,湿地动态度由86.32%变为-7.22%,土地利用程度综合指数由262.53变为259.91,表明大凌河流域近20年土地处于衰退期.基于CA-Markov模型预测大凌河流域2030年土地利用格局,模拟精度Kappa系数为0.8835.预测结果表明,2030年,大凌河流域耕地面积将进一步减少1699.92 km^(2),主要变为草地、建设用地和林地.According to the land use data of Daling River Basin in 2000,2010 and 2020,the land use dynamic degree,land use degree and land use transfer matrix are adapted to analyze the change rule of land use in the area in the past 20 years,and the land use patterns in 2030 are simulated and predicted based on the CA-Markov model.The results show that the cultivated land and grassland are dominated during 2000-2020,accounting for over 80%of the total land use in Daling River Basin.In the past 20 years,the area of forest land,grassland and construction land have been continuously increasing,while the area of farm land has been decreasing,and the rate of decline is accelerating,with the decrease of 132.85 and 1360.13 km^(2)respectively in the first and second decades.The dynamic degree of comprehensive land use reduces from 43.53%to 10.36%,showing a decreasing trend.The dynamic degree of construction land increases from 0.11%to 4.99%,and that of wetland changes from 86.32%to-7.22%.The comprehensive index of land use degree changes from 262.53 to 259.91,indicating that the land in Daling River Basin is in decline in recent 20 years.The land use patterns of the area in 2030 are predicted based on CA-Markov model,with the simulation accuracy Kappa coefficient of 0.8835.The prediction results reveal that the farm land will further decrease by 1699.92 km^(2)in 2030,mainly changing into grassland,construction land and forest land.

关 键 词：大凌河流域 土地利用 时空格局 模拟预测 元胞自动机-马尔可夫模型 东北地区 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]