全国统收统支能否实现基本养老保险财务可持续:来自省级面板数据的实证研究  

Can the national unified income and expenditure achieve the financial sustainability of basic endowment insurance:Empirical research from provincial panel data

作　　者：官兆 丁攀 GUAN Zhao;DING Pan(School of Business Administration,Northeastern University,Shenyang,Liaoning 110167,China;Hainan Provincial Financial Science and Technology Service Center,Haikou,Hainan 570312,China;China(Hainan)Institute of Reform and Development,Haikou,Hainan 570100,China;School of Science,Donghua University,Shanghai 201620,China)

机构地区：[1]东北大学工商管理学院,辽宁沈阳110167 [2]海南省财政科技服务中心,海南海口570312 [3]中国(海南)改革发展研究院,海南海口570100 [4]东华大学理学院,上海201620

出　　处：《中国软科学》2023年第8期199-210,共12页China Soft Science

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目(19JZD024)。

摘　　要：建立数理模型和基本养老保险收支精算模型,检验全国统收统支对基本养老保险财务可持续性的影响。研究发现:实现全国统收统支能提高基本养老保险财务可持续性;越早实现全国统收统支就越能提高基本养老保险财务可持续性;对基本养老保险财务可持续性来说,同时实施全国统收统支和延迟退休政策比单独实施全国统收统支效果要好;适当提高财政补贴增长率能提高全国统收统支下基本养老保险财务可持续性。从而提出:完善基本养老保险全国统筹制度;建立以全国统收统支为基础的基本养老保险全国统筹制度;多渠道增加养老保险基金收入;建立渐进式延迟退休制度。Establish mathematical model and actuarial model of income and expenditure of basic endowment insurance to test the impact of national unified income and expenditure on financial sustainability of basic endowment insurance.The research finds that the realization of national unified income and expenditure can improve the financial sustainability of basic endowment insurance;The earlier the national unified income and expenditure is realized,the more the financial sustainability of basic endowment insurance will be improved;For the financial sustainability of basic endowment insurance,it is better to implement the national unified income and expenditure policy and delayed retirement policy at the same time than to implement the national unified income and expenditure policy alone;properly increasing the growth rate of financial subsidies can improve the financial sustainability of basic old-age insurance under unified revenue and expenditure.Therefore,we should improve the national overall planning system of basic endowment insurance;establish a national overall planning system for basic old-age insurance based on national unified income and expenditure;increase pension fund income through multiple channels;establish a gradual delayed retirement system.

关 键 词：基本养老保险 全国统收统支 财务可持续 

分 类 号：C979[经济管理—劳动经济]