我国主体功能限制开发区域旅游生态安全动态演变及其驱动因素——以张家界为例  

Dynamic evolution and driving factors of tourism ecological security in the region of major function restricted development:A case study of Zhangjiajie

作　　者：杨友宝 郭付友 韩国圣 YANG Youbao;GUO Fuyou;HAN Guosheng(School of Tourism,Hunan Normal University,Changsha 410081,China;College of Geography and Tourism,Qufu Normal University,Rizhao 276800,China;College of Business,Shandong University,Weihai 264209,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学旅游学院,长沙410081 [2]曲阜师范大学地理与旅游学院,日照276800 [3]山东大学(威海)商学院,威海264209

出　　处：《生态学报》2023年第20期8404-8416,共13页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42201224);国家社会科学基金项目(22BZS107);湖南省教育厅科学研究重点项目(22A0047);山东省高等学校青创科技支持计划项目(2022RW040)。

摘　　要：旅游生态安全是国家生态安全体系的重要组成部分,也是维系旅游产业健康可持续发展的前提基础。基于主体功能限制开发视域下旅游生态安全内涵解析和“压力⁃状态⁃响应”框架构建指标体系,继而采用改进的逼近理想排序法(TOPSIS)模型、卷积神经网络和长短期记忆神经网络(CNN⁃LSTM)混合神经网络预测模型、因子贡献度模型对张家界旅游生态安全动态演变特征及驱动因素进行刻画分析。研究发现:(1)旅游生态安全指数总体呈波动上升趋势,安全等级与警情状态不断改观,旅游生态安全水平演变分为“增减交替”“快速上升”“稳定增长”三个时期。(2)旅游生态安全三大子系统均朝良性方向发展,但演化态势差异显著,压力子系统平均安全水平最高,但增长速率迟缓,状态子系统与前者则呈完全逆反态势,响应子系统平均安全水平与增长速率均处于中间位序水平,演变走势稳定性欠佳。(3)2021—2030年,旅游生态安全指数预测值有望从0.6194增至0.7665,旅游生态安全水平呈“螺旋式”上升趋势,整体安全状况将会得到持续优化,但仍存在较强不稳定性和不确定性。(4)影响旅游生态安全动态演变的首位驱动因子呈现“水土流失综合治理面积→省级以上自然保护区面积→城镇化率”的转换特征,旅游经济地位提升、公共绿地建设供给、工业绿色转型发展对旅游生态安全具有正向驱动效应,传统城镇化与工业化、高强度能源消耗、旅游产业无序扩张、频发性自然灾害、迟滞居民生活水平则产生负向抑制效应。Tourism ecological security is an important part of national ecological security system,and also the premise and foundation of maintaining the healthy and sustainable development of tourism industry.Based on the connotation analysis of tourism ecological security and the framework of Pressure⁃State⁃Response,the evaluation index system of tourism ecological security was constructed.The improved TOPSIS model,CNN⁃LSTM hybrid neural network prediction model,and factor contribution model were adopted to explore the dynamic evolution characteristics and driving factors of tourism ecological security in Zhangjiajie.The results indicate that:(1)From 2006 to 2020,the tourism ecological security index generally showed a fluctuating upward trend.The security level and the warning situation were constantly improving.The temporal evolution of tourism ecological security level had significant stage differentiation and roughly could be divided into three stages,including alternately increasing and decreasing,rapidly rising,and steadily growing.(2)From 2006 to 2020,the three subsystems of tourism ecological security all developed in a favorable direction,but the evolution trend was significantly different.The pressure subsystem had the highest average security level,but the growth rate was sluggish.The state subsystem presented the characteristics of the lowest average security level and the fastest growth rate.The average security level and growth rate of the response subsystem were all in a moderate sequence level with a poorly stable evolution trend.(3)The predicted value of tourism ecological security index is expected to rise from 0.6194 to 0.7665 in 2021—2030.The level of tourism ecological security shows a spiral upward trend.The overall security situation will continue to optimize,but still presents strong instability and uncertainty.(4)The primary factor driving the dynamic evolution of tourism ecological security presented the transformation characteristics of“area of soil erosion under control→area of natu

关 键 词：主体功能区划 限制开发 旅游生态安全 驱动因素 张家界 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]