碳中和目标下的国内价值链隐含碳与省级减排路线图设计  

Hidden Carbon Emissions in Domestic Value Chains and Provincial Mitigation Pathways under Carbon Neutrality Targets

作　　者：李萌 夏昕鸣 高宇宁[2] 胡鞍钢[2,3] Li Meng;Xia Xinming;Gao Yuning;Hu Angang

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学环境科学与工程学院 [2]清华大学公共管理学院 [3]清华大学国情研究院

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2023年第5期136-156,7,8,共23页International Economic Review

基　　金：清华大学产业发展与环境治理研究中心“碳中和目标下的国内价值链隐含碳与省级减排路线图设计”(项目编号:2021CIDEGA01);国家自然科学基金青年项目“全球价值链视角下中国碳排放格局与碳定价机制减排效应实证研究”(项目编号:72204159);国家自然科学基金青年项目“演化经济地理学视角下中国制造业出口产品创新能力研究”(项目编号:42201179)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：近年来,中国各地区经济联系愈发密切,国内市场一体化程度加深。但与此同时,省际贸易中隐含碳排放转移的问题也愈发突出,对中国碳达峰、碳中和目标的实现带来全新的挑战。基于拓展的环境多区域投入产出模型,本研究追溯国内价值链中各省的碳排放责任,分解刻画了贸易隐含碳沿六类不同价值链的时空特征,并基于人类发展指数,分区施策设计不同减排方案,模拟中国各省生产侧与消费侧的减排路线。研究发现,中国省际贸易隐含碳规模和重要性快速上升,省际贸易沿各条国内价值链的碳排放均有所增长,同时复杂价值链隐含碳排放实现了数量和比重的双重增长;复杂生产网络塑造了国内省际碳排放转移格局,已经形成了京津地区、东部沿海地区、南部沿海地区和中部地区等多中心碳排放辐射趋势;中国存在着普遍的碳顺差和碳逆差省份,各省发展水平存在一定梯度,凸显了在界定碳排放责任、制定减排路线时充分考虑价值链和省际贸易隐含碳的重要性。应对气候变化既是中国基本实现社会主义现代化的最大挑战,同时也是中国基本实现绿色现代化、区域均衡发展的重要机遇。Due to increasing interdependence amongChinese provinces and greater integration of domestic markets,hidden carbon emissions transfer in inter-provincial trade has brought whole new challenges to China's efforts to achieve carbon peak and neutrality targets.This article employs the environmental-extended multi-regional input-output model to analyze the emission responsibilities of provinces along domestic value chains and investigates the spatial and temporal features of the hidden carbon emissions transfer.The article sets various emission reduction scenarios based on the Human Development Index and simulates the production-and consumption-based mitigation pathways for each province.The results show that the scale of hidden carbon emissions in inter-provincial trade is increasing and emissions through complex value chains have witnessed a rapid growth.Complex production networks have shaped the pattern of inter-provincial emissions transfer and lead to carbon-surplus and carbon-deficit provinces,which reveals the importance of policymakers fully considering the development status when they define carbon emission responsibilities and design mitigation pathways.While mitigating climate change poses a significant challenge,it also presents a valuable chance for China's green modernization and equitable regional development.

关 键 词：价值链 省际贸易 碳排放责任 区域间投入产出模型 减排路线 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F124[经济管理—世界经济]