我国道路源二氧化碳排放估算及未来情景预测  

Estimation and future prediction of the on-road carbon dioxide emissions in China

作　　者：周嘉仪 李楠 冯伟航 汤克勤[1] 朱书涵 朱文达 ZHOU Jiayi;LI Nan;FENG Weihang;TANG Keqin;ZHU Shuhan;ZHU Wenda(School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044;Faculty of Science,University of Helsinki,Helsinki 00014)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学环境科学与工程学院,南京210044 [2]赫尔辛基大学理学院,芬兰赫尔辛基00014

出　　处：《环境科学学报》2023年第10期267-278,共12页Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae

基　　金：江苏省自然科学基金资助项目(No.BK20220031)。

摘　　要：交通运输作为我国二氧化碳排放增长最快的领域,对实现我国整体“碳中和、碳达峰”目标和经济高质量发展有着重要意义.本研究结合中国统计年鉴、《道路机动车排放清单编制技术指南》和中国国家标准,基于排放因子法建立了一份2008—2018年全国道路源二氧化碳排放清单,以分析国家道路源二氧化碳排放现状和未来变化.结果表明,近年来我国道路源二氧化碳排放量总体呈明显上升趋势,从2008年的3.37×10^(8)t上升到2018年的1.11×10^(9)t,上升幅度为228.63%.我国道路源二氧化碳排放以山东省、广东省为高值中心展开分布,主要集中在长三角、珠三角、四川盆地等经济发达地区.2008—2018年,我国道路源总碳(包括二氧化碳、一氧化碳、元素碳和有机碳)排放量自1.07×10^(8)t增长至3.05×10^(8)t,增幅为184.48%,远低于车辆保有量增幅(357.16%).未来情景预测分析指出,推广新能源汽车技术,提高燃油效率和减少车辆使用强度将有效减缓未来道路源二氧化碳排放量的增长趋势,预计2030年我国道路源二氧化碳排放量为0.95×10^(9)~1.49×10^(9)t.Transportation has been the fastest-growing sector of carbon dioxide emissions in China,being of great significance to the realization of the country’s overall‘carbon peak and carbon neutrality’target and high-quality economic development.The study established a national on-road CO_(2) emission inventory from 2008 to 2018 and analyzed the current situations and future changes of on-road CO_(2) emissions,based on China Statistical Yearbook,Technical Guidelines for Road Vehicle Emission Inventory and Chinese national standards.The results show that China’s on-road CO_(2) emissions increased by 228.63%during 2008—2018,from 3.37×10^(8) t to 1.11×10^(9) t.The CO_(2) emissions are distributed in Shandong Province and Guangdong Province as high-value centers,and mainly concentrated in developed areas such as the Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta and Sichuan Basin,etc.China’s total on-road carbon emissions(including carbon dioxide,carbon monoxide,elemental carbon and organic carbon)increased from 1.07×10^(8) t to 3.05×10^(8) t,an increase of 184.48%between 2008 and 2018,which is far lower than the growth of vehicle stock in China(357.16%).The evaluation of future scenarios reveals that the promotion of new energy vehicle technology,the improvement of fuel efficiency and the reduction of vehicle use intensity will effectively slow down the growth trend of China’s future on-road CO_(2) emissions,and the amount is estimated to be approximately 0.95×10^(9)~1.49×10^(9) t in 2030.

关 键 词：道路源 二氧化碳 排放清单 年际变化 情景预测 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]