北京市电气化政策的环境影响研究  

Study on environmental impact of electrification policy in Beijing

作　　者：薛晴月 束韫[2] 郭海英 程苗苗[2] 孙红[1] XUE Qingyue;SHU Yun;GUO Haiying;CHENG Miaomiao;SUN Hong(College of Environmental and Chemical Engineering,Dalian Jiaotong University,Dalian 116028;Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012)

机构地区：[1]大连交通大学环境与化学工程学院,大连116028 [2]中国环境科学研究院,北京100012

出　　处：《环境科学学报》2023年第10期435-444,共10页Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(No.2022YFC3703404)。

摘　　要：近年来,北京市电气化政策的一系列举措(逐步推进城六区无煤化以及大力推进车辆电动化等)取得了良好的大气污染物与温室气体减排效果.为定量分析电气化政策的实施带来的空气污染与气候变化减缓效应,采用温室气体-空气污染物协同控制综合评估模型(GAINS-East Asia),分别量化了北京市“居民煤改电”、“新能源汽车”以及“居民煤改电+新能源汽车”政策对空气污染物与CO_(2)的减排贡献.结果表明:到2030年电气化政策的实施使北京市的PM_(2.5)、SO_(2)、NOx和VOC的减排量分别达到2.6×10^(3)、3.1×10^(3)、3×10^(3)和4.2×10^(3)t.其中,“居民煤改电”政策对PM_(2.5)和SO_(2)的减排贡献较大,“新能源汽车”政策对NO_(x)和VOC的减排贡献较大,尤其是重型柴油车电动化.由此,对于PM_(2.5)和SO_(2)的减排,“煤改电政策”仍将是下一阶段的工作重点,而重型柴油车电动化是强化NO_(x)和VOC减排的关键.另一方面,电气化政策的推广导致北京市煤电负荷增加,从而CO_(2)排放增加,今后电气化政策的实施应重视电力行业碳减排,避免电气化政策所带来的负面效应.In recent years,a series of measures of Beijing's electrification policy(gradually promoting the coal-free development in the six districts of the city and vigorously promoting the electrification of vehicles,etc.)have achieved good emission reduction effects of air pollutants and greenhouse gases.In order to quantitatively analyze the air pollution and climate change mitigation effects of the electrification policy,a GAINS model was used to quantify the air pollution and CO_(2) reduction contributions by residents'coal to electricity,new energy vehicles,and the combination of residents'coal to electricity and new energy vehicles in Beijing.The results show that the emission reductions of PM_(2.5),SO_(2),NO_(x) and VOC in Beijing are 2.6×10^(3),3.1×10^(3),3×10^(3) and 4.2×10^(3) t,respectively,by 2030.Residents'coal to electricity policies contribute significantly to the emission reduction of PM2.5 and SO_(2),and new energy vehicle policies contribute significantly to the emission reduction of NO_(x) and VOC,especially the electrification of heavy diesel vehicles.Therefore,for the emission reduction of PM_(2.5) and SO_(2),the coal-to-electricity policy will remain the focus of work in the next stage,and the electrification of heavy diesel vehicles is the key to strengthen NO_(x) and VOC emission reduction.On the other hand,the promotion of electrification policy leads to the increase of coal power load in Beijing,which leads to the increase of CO_(2) emission.carbon emission reduction in the power industry should be paid more attention for the implementation of electrification policy in future.

关 键 词：居民煤改电 新能源汽车 GAINS模型 模拟分析 减排潜力 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]