晋北两种饲草作物的APSIM模型参数敏感性分析  

Parameter Sensitivity Analysis on Submodules of APSIM to Two Forages in Northern Shanxi Province

作　　者：侯青青 成华强 朱敏 杨轩 夏方山 HOU Qing-qing;CHENG Hua-qiang;ZHU Min;YANG Xuan;XIA Fang-shan(College of Grassland Science,Shanxi Agricultural University,Taigu,Shanxi Province 030801,China;Shanxi Key Laboratory of Grassland Ecological Protection and Native Grass Germplasm Innovation,Youyu,Shanxi Province 037200,China)

机构地区：[1]山西农业大学草业学院,山西太谷030801 [2]草地生态保护与乡土草种质创新山西省重点实验室,山西右玉037200

出　　处：《草地学报》2023年第10期3114-3122,共9页Acta Agrestia Sinica

基　　金：山西农业大学科技创新基金项目(2020BQ26);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(32001404)资助。

摘　　要：为有效识别影响晋北地区主要饲草作物产量形成的关键参数,简化模拟过程。本研究选用秣食豆(Glycine max L.)、饲用燕麦(Avena sativa L.)为研究对象,结合田间试验数据与历史气象资料,利用OAT法量化APSIM作物子模块在雨养、实际和潜在产量水平下产量指标对各气象、作物参数的敏感性。结果显示,不同产量水平下,影响秣食豆产量较为敏感的参数有:温度((相对敏感度Relative sensitivity,RS)为1.37~1.84)、辐射利用效率(0.59~1.34)、生长期结束至初花期积温(0.45~0.65);影响饲用燕麦产量较为敏感的参数有:降水量(0.51)、温度(0.70~0.63)、辐射(0.84)、春化敏感性指数(1.71~2.91)、辐射利用效率(0.87~1.06)、生长期结束至初花期积温(0.95~1.04)。本研究通过敏感性分析,得到对饲草产量形成的强敏感性参数,有助于模型结构优化与参数校正,以积极应用于后续研究,同时可为相近地区的农牧业资源高效利用提供参考。This study aimed to effectively identify the key parameters which affect the yield formation of main forage crops for simplifying the simulation process in northern Shanxi.We selected feed soybean(Glycine max(L.))and forage oats(Avena sativa L.)as the test objects,combined field experimental observation with historical meteorological data derived from Youyu Loess Plateau Grassland Ecosystem Positioning Observation and Research Station in Shanxi Province.Based on three yield levels(rain-fed,actual and potential),the OAT(One at a time)method was used to quantify the sensitivity of various meteorological and crop parameters of APSIM crop submodules on yield indicators.Results showed that under the different yield levels,the most sensitive parameters affecting the yield of feed soybean were temperature(Relative Sensitivity,RS=1.37~1.84),radiation use efficiency(0.59~1.34),and the accumulated temperature from floral initiation to end of growth period(0.45~0.65).The relatively sensitive parameters affecting the yield of forage oats included precipitation(0.51),temperature(0.70~0.63),radiation(0.84),vernalization sensitivity index(1.71~2.91),radiation use efficiency(0.87~1.06),and accumulated temperature from floral initiation to the end of growth period(0.95~1.04).Parameter sensitivity analysis could screen out the parameters with a high sensitivity to the formation of forage yields.The results of the current study would helpful for optimization on the structure and parameter validation of crop model,and could be actively applied in further research works;it would also provide a reference for the efficient utilization of agricultural and animal husbandry resources in similar regions.

关 键 词：晋北地区 APSIM 气候参数 作物参数 产草量 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：S512.6[农业科学—作物学]