中国县域尺度碳收支的时空演变研究  

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Carbon Budget at County Scale in China

作　　者：戴林琳[1] 封昌炜 周子杰 金丹 DAI Linlin;FENG Changwei;ZHOU Zijie;JIN Dan(College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;China Academy of Urban Planning&Design,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871 [2]中国城市规划设计研究院,北京100044

出　　处：《生态经济》2023年第11期31-39,59,共10页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“基于多源数据的省际交界地区乡村聚落空间演变与优化调控研究——以京津冀为例”(52078003)。

摘　　要：县域作为经济社会发展的基本单元,对于科学评估我国碳源与碳汇状况以及指导碳中和策略落实具有重要意义。以2680个县域单元为样本统计并核算2000—2017年碳源和碳汇数据,综合运用标准差椭圆、重心分析、空间自相关分析、碳平衡模型等来测度与解析县域碳收支的时空演变特征。研究发现:(1)2017年全国碳源增长为2000年的3倍,碳汇仅增加约1%。(2)碳源和碳汇占比均与地区面积有关,西部地区最高、东北地区最低;碳源重心由东向西转移,碳汇重心由东南向西北转移,即西南部碳源的影响在逐渐增加,西部碳汇的作用在增强;碳汇与碳源均呈现空间聚集分布特征。(3)东北地区、西部地区、中部地区和东部地区碳失衡状况日益严重,其中东北地区和西部地区的碳平衡情况相对较好。As the basic unit of economic and social development,county region is of great significance for scientific assessment of carbon sources and sinks in China and guiding the implementation of carbon neutralization strategy.In this study,carbon source and sink data of 2,680 county units were collected and calculated from 2000 to 2017.Standard deviation ellipse,barycenter analysis,spatial autocorrelation analysis and carbon balance model were used to measure and analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of carbon budget at county level.The results showed that:(1)the growth of carbon sources in 2017 was three times that of 2000,and the carbon sink only increased by about 1%.(2)The proportions of carbon sources and sinks were related to regional area,with the highest in western China and the lowest in northeast China.The center of gravity of carbon source shifted from east to west,and the center of carbon sink shifted from southeast to northwest,that is,the influence of carbon source in southwest was gradually increasing,and that of carbon sink in west was increasing.Both carbon sinks and carbon sources show spatial aggregation distribution characteristics.(3)The carbon balance in northeast China,western China,central China and eastern China is increasingly serious,and the carbon balance in northeast China and western China is relatively good.

关 键 词：县域 碳汇 碳源 碳收支 时空演变 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]